June PPI, CPI rise year-on-year international crude oil surge: July 9 commodity intelligence

Macro

1. [PPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In June 2026, the factory prices of manufacturing producers across the country rose 4.1 percent year-on-year and fell 0.3 percent month-on-month. The producer input price index rose 6.4% year on year and fell 0.2% month on month. In the first half of the year, the producer price index rose by 1.5% year on year, while the producer input price index increased by 2.4%.

2. [CPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In June 2026, consumer prices nationwide rose 1.0 percent year-on-year; down 0.3 percent month-on-month. In the first six months on average, the national consumer price index rose by 1.0% year on year.

3. [Auto] According to data from the Travel Association, the national passenger car market retailed 1.602 million vehicles in June, down 23.2 percent from the same period last year. Among them, the retail sales of conventional fuel vehicles were 600000, down 39 percent year-on-year; the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.007 million, down 9.4 percent year-on-year, and the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 62.8 percent. In June, 499000 new energy passenger cars were exported, up 152.7 percent year on year.

4. [New Zealand interest rate hike] On July 8, the Central Bank of New Zealand announced that it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points, raising the benchmark interest rate to 2.50 per cent, in line with market expectations.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On July 8, international crude oil futures rose sharply. U.S. WTI crude oil futures to the August contract settled at $73.52 per barrel, up $3.08, or 4.4%. The September Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $78.02 per barrel, up $3.86, or 5.2%.

2. [Crude Oil] On July 8, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that as of the week of July 3, US crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels to 0.4114 billion barrels, which is expected to decrease by 2.4 million barrels. U.S. gasoline inventories fell 1.9 million barrels to 0.2121 billion barrels, expected to fall by 1.6 million barrels. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 5 million barrels to 0.1036 billion barrels, compared with expectations to a 600000-barrel increase.

3. [Crude Oil] The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that as of the week of July 3, the total export volume of petroleum items by U.S. energy companies reached a record 8.73 million barrels per day. EIA said the figure surpassed the weekly record of 8.22 million barrels per day set in early might.

4. [Crude Oil] Citigroup said that the benchmark scenario is still the average price of Brent crude oil in the third quarter of 2026 is 75 US dollars per barrel. It is estimated that the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 is 70 US dollars/barrel, and the average price in 2027 is 65 US dollars/barrel, provided that the US-Iran agreement is finally reached and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

5. [Diesel] Affected by the domestic fuel shortage caused by Ukraine's continuous crackdown on refineries, Russia implemented a complete diesel export ban until the end of July on Wednesday and plans to import fuel. The news pushed up the global diesel price sharply, overlaying the US-Iran conflict to prevent risks, and the international energy market was under pressure.

6. [Petroleum Coke] On July 8, Yatong Petrochemical's petroleum coke price was 2770 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, sulfur 2.8, delayed coking unit 1.2 million tons/year, daily production 850 tons.

Chemical engineering

1. [Hydrofluoric Acid] Recently, the 30000-ton anhydrous hydrogen fluoride project jointly established by Polyfluoroduo-Hubei Yihua is in the trial production stage. The project with an annual output of 20000 tons of electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid has been mechanically completed and will be put into trial production soon. The project with an annual output of 10000 tons of electronic-grade phosphoric acid has been put on record and is expected to start construction in the second half of the year.

2. [Hydrofluoric acid] Jinebo Fluorochemical, a subsidiary of Jinshi Resources Holding, temporarily stopped production. According to the production plan, the subsidiary produces about 20,000 tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride per month, and it is expected that this temporary shutdown will have some impact on immediate operations.

3. [Lithium Carbonate] Recently, PLS's Ngungaju processing plant has restarted the production of spodumene concentrate. The plant has processed the first batch of ore and is expected to reach a stable production level within this quarter.

4. [Phosphoric Acid] On July 8, German Fangnano said that the company has built a production capacity of 450000 tons/year to phosphate-based positive materials and 5000 tons/year to lithium supplement enhancers.

5. [TDI] It is understood that the 150000-ton TDI plant in the western TDI plant will be shut down to annual overhaul in early August as planned.

6. [Aniline] On July 9, the price of Dongying Huatai aniline was raised by 400 yuan/ton. The latest price was 10700 yuan/ton in cash, 10800 yuan/ton was accepted, and the 100000-ton plant was operating normally.

7. [Styrene] On July 9, Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd., the latest quotation to styrene was 7800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

Rubber and plastic

1. [PP] Fushun Petrochemical PP two production lines, with a total production capacity of 390000 tons/year. The old line was stopped to maintenance on July 8, and the load of the new line was healthy. The ex-factory price of wire drawing material L5E89 on that day was 200 yuan to 8400 yuan/ton. Merchants spot prices follow the market, trading is OK.

2. [EPS] On July 8, Jiangyin Jianlong EPS price was raised by 150 yuan/ton, the price of common materials was 10000 yuan/ton, and the price of blocking fuel was reported to 10500 yuan/ton.

3. [cis-polybutadiene rubber] On July 8, Daqing and Jinzhou Shunding of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company left the factory at 12400 yuan/ton. The price of the Northeast warehouse was raised by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous period.

4. [Tires] On July 7, 2026, the European Commission announced the final results of the anti-dumping ruling on passenger car and light truck tires originating in China. Types of rulings on passenger car and light truck tires originating in China: final anti-dumping ruling, efficiently date: July 8, 2026, with main tax rates: Han Tai 4.3, other cooperative companies (such as Sailun, Linglong, etc.) 24.4, and non-responding companies 45.3.

Textiles

1. [Acrylonitrile] On July 9, the listing price of manufacturing acrylonitrile in Sinopec North China Branch was lowered by 100 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton.

2. [Acrylonitrile] According to statistics, as of July 8, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was about 46000 tons, up from +2000 tons last week.

Steel

1. [Iron Ore] July 8, 2026 News: Workers of the iron ore port business of global mining giant BHP Billiton in Port Hedland, Western Australia, plan to hold an 8-hour strike on July 16, which might have a short impact on the operation of the world's largest iron ore export port.

2. [Manganese Silicon] Comilao announced a price of US $5.10/ton to China's Gabon block in August 2026, down US $0.08/ton from the previous month.

3. [Manganese Silicon] Hegang Group's first round of inquiry to silicon and manganese in July 26 was 5900 yuan/ton. June fixed price of 5980 yuan/ton, (July 25 fixed price 5850). The mining capacity is 15400 tons. 15400 tons were collected in June. (14600 tons of silicon and manganese in July 2025).

4. [Ferrosilicon] Shandong Yihong issued a tender announcement to ferrosilicon. The purchase quantity is 300 tons. The deadline to quotation is 16:00 on July 9 and the delivery date is August 31, 2026.

5. [Ferrosilicon] Hegang's bid to ferrosilicon in July was 5900 yuan/ton, and the price in June was 6100 yuan/ton. In July, the tender quantity of 75B ferrosilicon in Hegang was 3380 tons (including 900 tons of Tangshan medium and heavy plate), and the tender quantity of the last round was 2600 tons, an increase of 780 tons over the previous round. Among them, Wuyang new generous 400(-) tons, Handan iron and steel 880(+180) tons, Tanggang new district 600(-) tons, Chenggang 100(-100) tons, Shigang special steel 100(-100) tons, Zhang Xuan high-tech 400(-100) tons, Tangshan plate 900(+900) tons.

6. [Steel] According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in late June 2026, key statistics show that iron and steel companies produced 20.24 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily production of 2.024 million tons, down 3.6 percent from the previous month. 19 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily production of 1.9 million tons, down 0.1 percent from the previous month. 22.18 million tons of steel, with an average daily production of 2.218 million tons, up 8.3 percent from the previous month. According to this estimate, the country's daily production of crude steel 2.66 million tons, down 3.6 percent month-on-month, daily production of pig iron 2.39 million tons, down 0.1 percent month-on-month, daily production of steel 4.35 million tons, up 2.8 percent month-on-month.

In late June 2026, the steel inventory of iron and steel companies will be 16.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons or 9.1 percent from the previous decade, an increase of 2.14 million tons or 15.1 percent from the beginning of the year, an increase of 450000 tons or 2.8 percent from the same period last month, and an increase of 830000 tons or 5.4 percent from the same period last year and 1.59 million tons or 10.8 percent from the same period last year.

Colored

1. [Aluminum] Chinalco: The spot prices of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) in various regions on July 8 are as follows: the East China market quoted 23040 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from July 7; The South China market quoted 23070 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from July 7. Southwest market quoted 23010 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from July 7; the Central Plains market quoted 22910 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 20 yuan/ton from July 7.

2. [Aluminum Tube] On July 3, Argentina's Ministry of Economy issued Announcement No. 883 of 2026, making a final ruling on the anti-dumping sunset merger and situational change review of aluminum tubes originating in China, and decided not to continue to impose anti-dumping duties on the items involved. The items in question are non‑formed, non‑alloy or alloy aluminum tubes of the 3xxx and 6xxx series, manufactured in accordance with IRAM 681 and having an outer diameter of 130mm or less, including coiled aluminum tubing; however, precision‑drawn aluminum tubes of the 3xxx series are excluded.

3. [Gold] The Czech Central Bank increased its gold holdings again by 1.6 tons in June, which is its 40th consecutive month of buying. This year, it has increased its holdings by nearly 11 tons, and its total holdings have exceeded 82 tons.

Building materials

1. [Paper] Nine Dragons Paper Quanzhou Base: Starting from July 13, 2026, the price of Earth Dragon Cattle Card will be increased by RMB50 yuan/ton.

Dongguan Base of nine dragons Paper: Starting from July 10, 2026, the prices of white-faced cattle cards, coated cattle cards, recycled cattle cards and corrugated paper will be increased by RMB/HKD50 yuan/ton (USD7/ton).

Nine Dragons Paper Leshan Base: From July 10, 2026, the price of corrugated paper will be increased by RMB50/ton.

Nine Dragons Paper Tianjin Base and Hebei Base: Starting from July 10, 2026, the prices of Nine Dragons Cattle Card, Hailong Cattle Card, Earth Dragon High condition V Cattle Card, Earth Dragon High condition Cattle Card, Earth Dragon Cattle Card, White Face Cattle Card and Coated Cattle Card will be increased by RMB50 yuan/ton.

Nine Dragons Paper Shenyang Base: Starting from July 10, 2026, the price of kraft paper (excluding recycled kraft) will be increased by RMB50 yuan/ton.

Dongguan Jianhui Paper sector: Starting from July 10, 2026, the sales prices of various grades of T-type paper and Honghui core paper will be increased by 50 yuan/ton; Starting from July 15, the sales prices of high-condition H2 paper, super-grade cow card and high-condition cow card Honghui brand will be increased by 50 yuan/ton.

2. [discarded materials Paper] On July 8, 2026, Henan Xinxiang Henry Paper Co., Ltd. The purchase price of discarded materials paper was increased by 30 yuan/ton. After adjustment, the general ticket price to the factory was 2020 yuan/ton.

agricultural sideline

1. [Corn] The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that in 18 states that account to 91% of the country's corn sown area, as of July 5 (Sunday), the corn spinning rate was 16%, 9% a week ago, 17% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 14%.

2. [Corn] According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, as of July 6, Ukraine has harvested 251400 hectares of grains (including beans), accounting to 3% of the planned planting area. Harvest yields reached 1.022 million tons, with an average yield of 5.07 tons per hectare.

3. [Rapeseed Meal] The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB) said that Ukraine's oilseed exports fell sharply in June. Ukraine exported 157200 tons of oilseeds in June, down 51.4 percent from the previous month.

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(Source: Business Society)