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According to market data from SunSirs, the benchmark price for acrylic acid stood at 8,383.33 RMB/ton as of August 10, marking a month-on-month increase of 0.40%. A review of market trends shows that following a price uptick on August 3-4, the market consolidated within a narrow range around the 8,350 RMB/ton level for an extended period, as the tug-of-war between long and short positions reached a state of equilibrium.
Analysis of driving factors
1. Support from upstream raw materials: Propylene prices were rising strongly.
As of August 11, the benchmark price to propylene tracked by SunSirs stood at 8,161.00 RMB/ton, marking a 2.94% increase compared to the beginning of the month (7,927.67 RMB/ton). As a key upstream raw material to acrylic acid, the rise in propylene prices immediately drives up production costs to acrylic acid, thereby providing support to acrylic acid prices.
2. Downstream demand outlook: Marginal improvement in butyl acrylate.
Butyl acrylate is a key downstream product of acrylic acid; a recovery in demand from downstream sectors—such as coatings, adhesives, and textiles—would stimulate procurement activity to acrylic acid. Within the propylene-acrylic acid-butyl acrylate value chain, the combination of rising upstream propylene prices and anticipated downstream demand recovery is driving a modest upward direction in acrylic acid prices.
3. immediate supply-demand stability: Inventories and operating rates remained stable.
From August 4 to August 9, prices remained stable as the market maintained a state of "weak equilibrium": operating rates at production companies held steady, downstream purchasing was driven primarily by essential demand, and there was no significant inventory buildup or supply shortage. The slight price increase on August 10 likely stemmed from a combination of tentative price adjustments by some companies and periodic restocking by downstream buyers.
Market Outlook
Short term: Supported by expectations of downstream restocking, acrylic acid prices might continue a modest upward direction; however, the actual strength of downstream purchasing and the sustainability of propylene prices warrant close monitoring.
Medium term: If propylene prices remain strong and downstream demand (e.g., to butyl acrylate) recovers further, acrylic acid prices could break through the 8,400 RMB/ton mark; conversely, if downstream demand falls short of expectations, prices might retreat to fluctuate around the 8,350 RMB/ton level.
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