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According to data from SunSirs, the average spot price of LLDPE (7042) was 8,885 RMB/ton on September 1 and 9,351 RMB/ton on September 29, an increase of 5.25%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) rose from 11,466 RMB/ton on September 1 to 12,200 RMB/ton on September 29, up 6.40%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) fell from 10,787 RMB/ton on September 1 to 10,562 RMB/ton on September 29, a decline of 2.09%.
In early September, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East drove up the prices of crude oil and ethylene; strong cost support was the primary driver of the month's price increases. However, oil prices retreated slightly in the latter part of the month, causing this support to weaken.
During the first half of September, maintenance-related constraints and operating rates that were reduce than in previous years created a "tight stability" that provided a price floor. From mid-to-late September, production units gradually resumed operations and operating rates rebounded; combined with expectations of new capacity coming online, supply pressure began to build up.
The "Golden September" peak season failed to meet expectations: while the overall downstream operating rate saw a slight month-on-month increase, the volume of new orders—such as those to agricultural film and piping—was weaker than in the same period of previous years. Downstream buyers generally purchased on an as-needed basis, showing clear resistance to high-priced raw materials and little willingness to chase rising prices.
The rebound in PE prices at the end of the month was a periodic correction driven by a confluence of factors: crude oil costs strengthening again due to renewed Middle East geopolitical risks, tight spot supplies, and essential pre-National Day holiday stockpiling. In the short term, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels.
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