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Market Overview
This week, the domestic melamine market remained stable initially before surging and then falling back, exhibiting an overall pattern of weak fluctuation. According to data monitored by SunSirs, the benchmark price to urea stood at 1,757.50 RMB/ton as of October 13, representing a 1.26% decrease compared to the beginning of the month (1,780.00 RMB/ton).
On the feedstock side, urea prices have also weakened; as of October 13, the benchmark price to urea tracked by SunSirs stood at 1,757.50 RMB/ton—a 1.26% decline from the start of the month (1,780.00 RMB/ton)—indicating a slight easing of cost support.
Fundamental Logic
Supply Side
Domestic melamine producers have maintained relatively stable operating rates, ensuring ample overall supply. While factory shipments proceeded normally during the earlier period of price stability, downstream buying interest waned after prices spiked; consequently, producers struggled to sustain price levels, leading to a subsequent decline. Falling prices to the raw material urea have somewhat alleviated cost pressures on manufacturers however have also weakened the upward cost-side support to the product.
Demand Side
Downstream industries—such as those producing panels and impregnated paper—showed limited restocking activity following the holiday; purchasing was driven primarily by immediate needs, with little willingness to buy at higher price points. After a brief price surge earlier in the week, a wait-and-see sentiment took hold downstream. A lack of follow-through in substantial-volume transactions meant prices could not be sustained at elevated levels, serving as the primary reason to the subsequent pullback.
Overall Outlook
In the short term, the melamine market is likely to continue its pattern of weak, fluctuating performance. Prices to the raw material urea remain soft, weakening cost support. There are no immediate signs of a significant rebound in downstream demand, and high price levels are dampening end-user purchasing.
If prices continue to fall below the support level of the 20-day moving average, downward pressure on the market will intensify. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include fluctuations in urea raw material prices, operating rates in the downstream panel sector, and changes in factory inventory levels.
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