A-shares' third-quarter results forecasts are being disclosed intensively, with the energy and chemical sector seeing substantial positive performance pre-announcements.

Energy Sector: Coal Price Uptrend Combined with Wet Season Dividends, Coal and Hydropower companies Achieve Collective Positive Performance Forecasts

Listed companies in the two major energy sub-sectors of coal and hydropower have collectively delivered impressive performance forecasts to the first three quarters. The coal market maintains a tight supply-demand stability, with the central coal price fluctuating and rising, driving a significant improvement in the profit level of listed coal companies. According to Choice data, the average price of Q5500 thermal coal reached 1,002 yuan per ton on October 19, compared with only 673 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year. sector analysis believes that coal prices will remain high and fluctuating, and coal companies still have support to their fourth-quarter performance.

Guanghui Energy, which mainly engages in coal, liquefied natural gaseous, and coal chemical business, disclosed its performance forecast to the first three quarters on the evening of October 8. The company expects its attributable net profit to shareholders to the first three quarters to be 2.7 billion yuan to 2.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 166.83% to 176.71%; the attributable net profit to shareholders to the single third quarter is 1.42 billion yuan to 1.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year surge of 795.08% to 858.12%. Guanghui Energy explained that the domestic energy sector has rebounded in the first three quarters, and the supply-demand pattern has continued to enhance. The company completed the annual overhaul of its coal chemical plant in the third quarter. After the overhaul, the operational stability of the plant has improved, production capacity has been fully released, the output of main items has steadily increased in August and September, and the production side has recovered rapidly. Combined with the rise in the sales price of main items and the recovery of net profit per ton of items, the price increase and internal cost reduction and efficiency expansion have jointly broadened the profit space.

Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has released its official third-quarter report, achieving revenue of 37.836 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 22.03%; attributable net profit to shareholders of 7.487 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.54%. The company stated that the sales prices of coal and electrolytic aluminum items have increased year-on-year, while the price of alumina, a major raw material, has decreased year-on-year. The combination of price increases and raw material price reductions has significantly enhanced the company's profitability.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics on October 19 shows that China's new energy system construction has accelerated. In the first three quarters, the proportion of clean energy power generation such as hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power among manufacturing companies above designated size reached 36.8%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The proportion of clean energy power generation has steadily risen, and the performance of hydropower listed companies has been delivered accordingly.

Hunan research, whose core asset is hydropower, expects its attributable net profit to shareholders to the first three quarters of 2026 to be 250 million yuan to 290 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 290.45% to 352.92%. The performance surge stems from the abundant incoming aquatic environments upstream of its hydropower stations, leading to a substantial year-on-year increase in power generation. Shaoneng Co., Ltd., which also mainly engages in hydropower as a renewable energy business, expects its attributable net profit to shareholders to the first three quarters to be 278 million yuan to 302 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.12% to 75.03%. The company stated that during the reporting period, through measures of growing revenue and reducing expenditure, it has promoted a substantial year-on-year increase in the operating performance of its clean energy sector.

Chemical Sector: Product Spread Recovery Delivers Profits, Multiple Sub-sectors Welcome Performance Rebounds

Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt the supply of crude oil, natural gaseous, and refined oil, pushing up the central international oil price. The refining processing spread has also fluctuated upward, driving a recovery in the prosperity of the chemical sector. 11 chemical companies in sectors such as refining, organic silicon, modified plastics, printing and dyeing, and spandex have released positive performance forecasts. Private refining leaders have have become the main force of this round of profit recovery, with leading companies achieving profit doubling on the basis of a substantial profit volume.

Hengli Petrochemical expects its attributable net profit to shareholders to the first three quarters to be 10.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 104.20%;

Rongsheng Petrochemical expects its attributable net profit to shareholders to be 7.8 billion yuan to 8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 777.93% to 822.95%;

Hengyi Petrochemical expects its attributable net profit to shareholders to be 7.9 billion yuan to 8.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3318.59% to 3405.13%.

In the organic silicon sector, Dongyue Silicon Materials leads in performance development. The company announced on October 8 that it expects its attributable net profit to shareholders to the first three quarters to be 547 million yuan to 567 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19050% to 19750%. The logic behind the performance surge is the rise in the sales price of organic silicon items, the decline in the procurement cost of upstream manufacturing silicon, the reduction in unit production cost, and a significant increase in the overall gross profit margin.

In the modified plastics sector, Yinxi methodology, Guoen Co., Ltd., and Daoen Co., Ltd. have also released positive forecasts. Among them, Yinxi methodology expects its attributable net profit to shareholders to the first three quarters to be 128 million yuan to 134 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.1% to 58.19%. The company stated that the gross profit margin of product sales has increased, and the gross profit scale has significantly expanded year-on-year.

Fuchun Dyeing & Weaving disclosed its forecast on the evening of October 13, expecting its attributable net profit to shareholders to the first three quarters to be 338 million yuan to 378 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1347.69% to 1519.01%. The simultaneous rise in production and sales volume and product prices has have become the core driver of the high performance development.

Huafeng Chemical, a spandex leader, expects its attributable net profit to shareholders to the first three quarters to be 2.9 billion yuan to 3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.42% to 118.95%. The company stated that affected by the supply-demand pattern and raw material price fluctuations, product prices have risen year-on-year, and the gross profit margin has improved. Relying on its own manufacturing chain advantages to seize market opportunities, its profitability has continued to enhance.

Expert Interpretation: Prosperity is Phased, Focus on High-value-added Material Sectors in the Fourth Quarter

Zhao Jun, a specially-appointed expert from the China Petroleum and Chemical sector Federation and a member of the National Energy Expert Database, stated that this round of profit recovery in the energy and chemical sector is the result of the superposition of multiple factors, including immediate supply shocks, continuous sector supply adjustment, and differentiation in enterprise operational competitiveness. Whether the medium and prolonged sector prosperity can continue is determined by the core factors such as the manage of new production capacity, the pace of backward production capacity exit, and the actual fulfillment of product spreads and downstream terminal demand.

Regarding the investment theme to the fourth quarter, Zhao Jun suggested focusing on refrigerants and high-performance fluorine-containing materials subject to quota constraints, light hydrocarbon integration companies with low-cost advantages, and the organic silicon sector that can strictly implement supply self-discipline.