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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market in East China saw prices at ports fall steadily from 4,846 RMB/tonne to approximately 3,966 RMB/tonne between October 9 and 16. This represents a sharp decline of 18.16% over the period; the price is down 0.83% month-on-month, yet up 70.68% year-on-year. Recently, downstream industries in the coastal methanol market have faced losses and insufficient raw material inventories, leading to expectations of production unit shutdowns. This has created a negative feedback loop for the methanol market, causing prices to retreat rapidly.
As of the close of trading on October 16, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) ended reduce. The primary methanol futures contract, 2611, opened at 3,355 RMB/tonne, reached a high of 3,410 RMB/tonne and a low of 3,310 RMB/tonne, and closed at 3,366 RMB/tonne—down 51 points from the previous trading day’s settlement price, representing a decline of 1.49%. The trading volume stood at 1,350,861 lots, with an open interest of 229,182 lots, reflecting a daily decrease in open interest of 33,217 lots.
Summary of methanol market prices across various regions as of October 16:
On the cost side, the tug-of-war between supply and demand in the coal market has intensified. Downstream buyers remain resistant to high coal prices, which continue to fluctuate at elevated levels—a factor that still provides support to methanol. Consequently, the cost-side affect on methanol leans toward the positive.
On the demand side, the negative feedback from downstream olefin producers is particularly pronounced. Furthermore, some olefin vegetation that have suspended operations continue to sell off their feedstock, while a market tendency to "buy on the rise however not on the fall" has further weighed on sentiment, leading to a prevailing "wait-and-see" approach. As the pricing of many downstream items is influenced by methanol costs, the overall demand-side outlook to methanol remains bearish.
On the supply side, facilities at Guoneng Yulin, Jinmei Huayu, and Chongqing Wansheng have undergone maintenance, while operations at Shanxi Coking and Yulin Kaiyue have resumed. As the volume of capacity taken offline exceeds that which has come back online, the overall capacity utilization rate has declined, leading to a reduction in output. These developments on the supply side are exerting a bullish affect on the methanol market.
Regarding international markets, as of the close of trading on October 15, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol price stood at $649.5–$650.5 per tonne. The FOB US Gulf methanol price was $162–$164 per gallon, an increase of 2 cents per gallon; meanwhile, the FOB Rotterdam (Europe) methanol price reached €501.5–€502.5 per tonne, up by €5 per tonne.
Market outlook
Given that downstream demand remains lackluster, coupled with the fact that some olefin producers continue to sell off their feedstocks—and with overall supply in the inland regions gradually becoming greater abundant—buyers in the mid-to-downstream sectors remain cautious about chasing price increases. Taking these factors into account, methanol analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the domestic spot methanol market will likely see a period of consolidation.
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