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On November 4, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 10,408 RMB/ton; by November 11, it had fallen to 9,533 RMB/ton, a decline of 8.41%. For LDPE (2426H), the average price dropped from 12,900 RMB/ton on November 4 to 11,666 RMB/ton on November 11, down 9.56%. HDPE (5000S) saw its average price fall from 11,350 RMB/ton on November 4 to 10,862 RMB/ton on November 11, a decrease of 4.30%.
Domestic polyethylene production has seen a mix of maintenance shutdowns and restarts, resulting in a slight increase in the overall operating rate and a steady rise in domestic supply. Import volumes remain stable, with limited pressure from external sources. Petrochemical inventories have shifted from destocking to a slight accumulation; consequently, producers’ resolve to maintain high prices has weakened, and spot quotes are being adjusted downward in line with futures market trends.
As the peak season to agricultural film draws to a close, operating rates remain relatively high, though the development of new orders has slowed. Activity in other downstream sectors—such as packaging, injection molding, and blow molding—remains sluggish, with procurement largely limited to immediate, as-needed standards. With the peak-season support waning and insufficient buying interest, spot transactions are primarily small-scale, essential purchases that provide little upward momentum to prices.
Expectations of easing geopolitical tensions have led to a decline in crude oil prices, significantly weakening the cost support to oil-based polyethylene. evaporative environment in oil price forecasts has introduced cost-side instability, putting pressure on the futures market and leaving it with insufficient immediate support.
In the near term, the polyethylene market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias, as demand support fades further following the end of the agricultural film peak season. With crude oil showing limited rebound possible, it is unlikely to provide strong cost-side support. Future price movements will depend on terminal-market restocking and possible announcements regarding new maintenance shutdowns. Key factors to monitor include the summary of the winter-season agricultural film demand and geopolitical developments affecting crude oil prices.
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