IEA Says US-Iran Conflict Could Alter Forecast of Crude Oil Supply Surplus

The escalation of US-Iran hostilities threatens to disrupt crude oil supplies; the IEA notes that this situation could overturn predictions of a substantial global supply surplus to the coming year. Market expectations of tighter supply are intensifying, providing support to crude spot prices and boosting crude futures—a generally bullish research.

Crude oil is the primary feedstock to producing petroleum asphalt; expectations of rising crude prices enhance the cost-side support to asphalt. The settlement price to the SHFE asphalt benchmark contract (2609) on July 10, 2026, was 3,776 RMB/tonne, with an open interest of 271,500 lots. As the logic of cost-based support gradually strengthens, this exerts a mildly positive affect on asphalt prices.

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