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Rising prices for semi-coke (raw material) have provided relatively strong cost support for PVC resin. The overall operating rate for PVC resin currently stands at 62.64%, marking a decline from the previous period. While spot prices have edged up, market trading remains lackluster; mainstream ex-warehouse spot prices (cash terms) for Type-5 carbide-based PVC are 4,660–4,750 RMB/tonne in East China and 4,780–4,860 RMB /tonne in South China.
Demand exhibits a clear "lackluster peak season" pattern, with overall domestic demand remaining weak. while operating rates to downstream pipe and profile manufacturers have risen slightly, they remain below historical averages; downstream buyers show strong resistance to high-priced supplies, limiting purchasing largely to immediate needs, while export order volumes remain at baseline levels.
Regarding inventory, as of September 24, total stocks at sampled warehouses in East and South China (following an expansion of the sample set) stood at 897,900 tonnes; while this represents a decline from the previous period, it remains higher year-on-year. Despite a sustained period of weekly inventory drawdown, the absolute volume of broader social inventory remains high. Current sentiment across the commodities market is subdued, and the chemical sector is generally trending weak, placing downward pressure on PVC spot prices.
Overall, while cost factors provide a floor to prices, the inability of downstream demand to fully materialize and the high level of social inventory constrain upward possible. Moving forward, key factors to watch include possible supply-side contractions and whether export orders enhance.
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