1. overall market pattern: cost bottom, upstream and downstream profit differentiation
from October 5 to 12, 2026, China's isopropanol industry chain showed a typical pattern of "upstream cost surge, midstream transmission blocked, downstream demand differentiation. Affected by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the high operation of international oil prices, and the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the amount of propane to port is low, and the domestic raw material cost center continues to move up. As of October 12, the prices of propylene, acetone and isopropanol in China rose simultaneously: the spot price of propylene in Shandong exceeded 10550 yuan/ton, a new high for the year; the benchmark price of acetone was 8712.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 percent from the beginning of the month; and the benchmark price of isopropanol was 9316.67 yuan/ton, up 0.72 percent. The market as a whole is cautious, the traditional downstream high price resistance is obvious, only electronic grade high purity products to maintain a tight balance.
2. core raw materials and product prices, regional market.
On the raw material side, China's Shandong refining and chemical enterprises concentrated on price increases, Dongying Hualian Petrochemical, Shandong Qicheng Petrochemical, Shandong Shenchi Chemical, Shandong Haike and other refineries concentrated on propylene ex-factory prices exceeded 10500 yuan/ton. Domestic propylene operating rate of 70.07, inventory of 41090 tons, month-on-month decline, tight supply. Acetone rose at the same time, but Jiangyin port inventory reached 21500 tons, a big increase of 14000 tons month-on-month, the increase is limited, and propylene price difference upside down about 1680 yuan/ton, confirming the loss pressure of phenol ketone plant.
On the product side, China East China Industrial Grade Isopropyl Alcohol Spot 9337.5 Yuan/Ton, Shandong Mainstream Factory 9100-9300 Yuan/Ton. Subdivision of the track price difference is significant, the domestic SEMI G4 electronic grade isopropanol average price of up to 18000 yuan/ton, ordinary electronic grade average price of 12500 yuan/ton, more than the industrial grade premium of about 35%, become the strongest support of the industrial chain. In terms of regional spreads, Shandong production area prices are low, South China prices are high, cross-provincial arbitrage space is basically closed.
3. supply and demand and start-up: plant maintenance underpinning supply, industry low-load operation
at present, the overall operating rate of China's isopropanol industry is only 44%, which is at the low level of the year, and many sets of main devices are stopped or operated at low load. Ningbo Juhua, China long-term shutdown of 50000 tons/year acetone process plant, china Huizhou Yuxin, china Kailing Chemical multiple sets of units run in negative mode; phenol ketone plate huizhou Zhongxin Phase I, CNOOC and Shell the device is stopped to further tighten the regional supply. Propylene end Donghua Maoming, Hebei Haiwei PDH device storage maintenance and negative expectations, only Wanhua Chemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical and other head enterprises high-load production. The overall pattern of "low start-up, low inventory and rigid supply" is presented.
4. downstream demand structural differentiation, electronic track alone support high
domestic demand is clearly polarized. 45%-60% of the solvent, paint traditional downstream in the off-season, only 7-10 days just need a small single purchase, no speculative replenishment. The pharmaceutical disinfection field, which accounts for 20%-25%, just needs to be stable, with a procurement cycle of 15-20 days and a cautious attitude. The only increase from the electronic cleaning track, AI chips, HBM capacity expansion led to the upward demand for wafer supplies, electronic-grade isopropanol long association orders are sufficient, inventory tight, supporting high-end prices.
5. Trade, Profit and Post-Market Strategy
profit-side industrial chain differentiation is significant: acetone isopropanol loss of about 750 yuan/ton, phenol ketone enterprises ton loss of 1384 yuan. On the trade side, China's isopropyl alcohol exports continued to grow, with a net export of 8915.73 tons in July, mainly to Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Affected by India's resumption of tariff and anti-dumping policies, exports to India continued to shrink.
After the market short-term to high-level shock-based: propylene strong shock, acetone range fluctuations, isopropanol cost support sufficient but demand pressure. Traders suggest that just need to purchase on demand, industrial grade cautiously chase high, electronic grade high purity products can maintain strategic inventory, focusing on tracking the Middle East geography, port inventory, equipment maintenance and overseas tariff policy changes.
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