With Supply-Demand Fundamentals Remaining Weak, the Market for Imported Potassium Chloride Was Under Pressure and Trending Downward

Following the National Day holiday, market prices to imported potassium chloride in China have fluctuated downward, with the market direction continuing to weaken. Data monitored by SunSirs indicates that as of October 13, the benchmark price to imported potassium chloride stood at 3,316.67 RMB/ton, representing a 0.99% decline compared to the beginning of the month (3,350.00 RMB/ton).

Following the holiday, prices to mainstream 62% white potash at ports dropped by 50-100 RMB/ton, while prices to Laotian white potash fell by 50-80 RMB/ton. Low-priced transactions have begun to emerge; traders are keen to move stock, and the market's prevailing price level has shifted downward.

Fundamental Logic

Supply Side

With ample supply, the market is facing significant downward pressure. Domestic potassium chloride production facilities are operating steadily, and shipments continue to move out; while ex-factory quotes remain firm, actual market transaction prices have broken below previous levels. Imports are arriving on schedule, leading to a continued buildup of port inventories and abundant circulating stock. Traders are eager to sell amidst intensifying competition, and some are offering price concessions to move goods, further dragging down spot transaction prices.

Demand Side

Sluggish downstream demand is the primary factor driving the recent market downturn. During the autumn fertilizer stocking season, operating rates among domestic compound fertilizer producers remain low compared to the same period last year. Manufacturers show little enthusiasm to procurement, limiting purchases to small, essential volumes while displaying a lack of willingness to stockpile substantial quantities. The supply-demand dysfunction has intensified; negotiations to new orders have stalled, and end-consumers remain in a "wait-and-see" mode. Without the stimulus of bulk purchasing, there is insufficient support to bolster potassium chloride prices.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, the imported potassium chloride market is highly likely to remain weak and direction downward, fluctuating at low levels. From a technical perspective, moving averages have formed a bearish crossover—a clear signal of downward momentum—and prices across all timeframes remain low; however, supply-demand fundamentals have yet to enhance. Persistent pressure from high port inventories, limited room to increased operating rates among downstream compound fertilizer producers, and insufficient demand mean that traders will likely continue to offer price concessions to move stock.

Moving forward, key factors to monitor include changes in port inventories, compound fertilizer operating rates, the schedule of incoming shipments, and international potash price trends. If downstream buyers do not begin restocking in earnest, potassium chloride prices could face further downward pressure.