China Polyethylene Prices Strengthen; Market Likely to Fluctuate at High Levels

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According to data from SunSirs, the average spot price of LLDPE (7042) rose 5.96% from 9,390 RMB/ton on October 1 to 9,950 RMB/ton on October 13. LDPE (2426H) rose 4.95% from 12,133 RMB/ton to 12,733 RMB/ton over the same period, while HDPE (5000S) increased 5.85% from 10,475 RMB/ton to 11,087 RMB/ton.

Geopolitical factors have kept crude oil prices high, and strong overseas ethylene prices have provided a cost floor to PE. However, as profit margins to oil-based refining and chemical production remain squeezed and cost pass-through is hindered, rising costs alone are insufficient to drive a major market rally.

Domestic PE operating rates remain at moderate levels; units undergoing maintenance are restarting, and production is gradually recovering. With new capacity continuing to come online, supply pressure is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. while social inventories saw a slight build-up after the holiday, overall stock levels remain low, providing immediate support to spot prices.

The agricultural film sector has entered its traditional peak season, with orders to greenhouse and mulch films driving demand to polyethylene. While the packaging and hollow-product sectors have seen a slight recovery, improvements in the pipe and injection molding sectors remain limited. Downstream buyers are resistant to high-priced raw materials, preferring to purchase only to meet immediate needs rather than actively stockpiling; consequently, the support provided by the peak season might be short-lived.

Following the post-holiday surge, PE prices are likely to shift toward high-level fluctuation in the short term. As the peak season support to agricultural films wanes and new capacity enters the market, there is insufficient momentum to further significant price increases. Unless crude oil prices see a substantial rise, there is a risk that the price center will retreat.

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