China's phenol market weekly market: geo-premium recedes, cost collapse drives market shift

By SKYSEVEN Chemical Technical Team · 2026-11-09

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In the past week, China's phenol market from geo-premium, low inventory support to cost collapse overlay supply and demand weakness, showing a stable and then down pattern.

1. Market Review and Price Changes

for the past week, china phenol market from geo-premium, low inventory support to cost collapse overlay supply and demand weakness, showing a first stable and then down pattern. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec's listing in East China maintained 10000 yuan/ton, November 3 east China spot about 9900 yuan/ton; By the U.S. mid-term elections, the market trading U. S.-Iran peace talks eased expectations, crude oil, pure benzene fell sharply, phenol quickly followed the decline. As of November 6, East China spot 9200-9250 yuan/ton, Sinopec East China listed down 600 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton; shandong, China ex-factory 9600-9900 yuan/ton, South China received huizhou Zhongxin the first phase of parking support, the price decline is small. During the week, East China phenol spot fell 650-700 yuan/tonne, or about 6.6 percent.
On November 3, the two-month phenol-pure benzene inversion ended, chinese Phenolic Ketone Enterprises from the deep loss repair to near the profit and loss, but the profit improvement stems from the pure benzene overshoot, not the downstream demand rebound, the profit base is not strong. Jiangyin, China phenol port inventories remained low at 11500 tons, forming a certain bottom for prices, but could not offset the significant downward pressure on the cost side.

2. supply and demand fundamentals dismantling

supply end, zhongsha (Tianjin) Petrochemical350000 tons/year phenol ketone plant restarted on October 31, domestic phenol ketone capacity utilization rate from 73.07 percent to 77.80 percent, phenol weekly production increased; at the same time ningbo Taihua enter the planned overhaul, Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I parking, part of the hedge supply increment. Raw material pure benzene supply marginal increase, Jiangsu port appeared tired warehouse inflection point, prices fell sharply.
The demand side presents a weak supply increase. Downstream china bisphenol A, epoxy resin, PC is generally in the loss range, although bisphenol A started to rise, but only to maintain just need to long about the implementation, spot procurement cautious, "buy down not buy up", the transaction is difficult to volume. Acetone co-production end jiangyin, China the port stock is 15000 tons, and the supply pressure is greater than that of phenol, which will reverse the comprehensive benefits of phenol and ketone.

3. Trade Perspective Research and Practical Tips

at the policy level, China will continue to impose anti-dumping duties on phenol from many countries until August 2030, the source of imports will be restricted, and the dependence on domestic imports has dropped below 5%. The core game points of the current market are: low inventory bottoming vs costs continue to decline; increased supply from the resumption of installation vs negative risk of downstream losses; and uncertainty of a rebound in the US-Iran geopolitical situation.
Short-term projections east China phenol oscillates in the 9000-9500 yuan/ton range. It is recommended that overseas and domestic traders should not blindly copy the bottom, to just need to buy in batches, focusing on tracking. Jiangyin, China port inventory, pure benzene price, phenol ketone device load, bisphenol A start four indicators. Mid-November-December inspection device centralized resumption of work overlay downstream off-season, the market center of gravity is still at risk of moving down.

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