With Costs Collapsing and Supply Easing, Isooctanol Prices Retreated from Highs Last Week

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of isooctanol stood at 10,166.67 RMB/ton on November 6, marking a decline of 3.17% from the 10,500 RMB/ton recorded on November 1. Since November 3, major producers have consistently lowered their quotes, reflecting a downward correction from recent highs and a bearish, evaporative direction. while prices remain within the high range seen over the past year, the market faces clear immediate downward pressure due to weakening cost support, a sustained increase in supply, and negative feedback from downstream demand.

The price of the raw material propylene fluctuated downward last week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the quoted price to propylene on November 6 was 11,501 RMB/ton—a decline from the 12,001 RMB/ton recorded on November 1, representing a drop of 4.17%. Since the beginning of November, international crude oil prices have fallen sharply, causing propylene prices to retreat from their highs. This has weakened the cost support to isooctanol, intensifying downward pressure on its price.

On the supply side: The addition of new production capacity, combined with high operating rates, has led to a direction toward looser supply.

In 2026, approximately 1.14 million tonnes/year of new isooctanol (2-EH) capacity is expected to come online, bringing total supply capacity to 3.73 million tonnes. New capacity has begun to enter the production phase, accompanied by an increase in operating rates; last week, the operating rate to 2-EH rose slightly to 75%. Major production units are running stably, with no extensive, concentrated maintenance scheduled to the near term. Meanwhile, units that had previously undergone maintenance have gradually resumed production, easing the earlier supply tightness. With the addition of new capacity and high operating rates, the supply of 2-EH has have become greater abundant.

Market Outlook

According to analysts at SunSirswho track isooctanol (2-EH), prices to the product are expected to fluctuate at a high level with a downward bias throughout November. The market is likely to see a gradual drift reduce as it undergoes a correction to digest previous gains; conditions to a sustained, one-sided rally are currently lacking. On the cost side, the persistent decline in crude oil prices—coupled with a significant risk of a downward correction in propylene prices—is driving a reduction in 2-EH production costs. On the supply side, the combination of new production capacity and high operating rates has led to an increase in 2-EH supply. Consequently, the market might face a "double whammy"—a downward shift in prices driven by both reduce costs and an oversupply. Looking ahead, the prevailing direction to 2-EH in November will likely remain one of weak, fluctuating performance, with price levels gradually trending downward.

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