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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market in East China saw prices at ports decline steadily from 3,905 RMB/ton on October 30 to approximately 3,760 RMB/ton by November 6. This represents a 3.71% drop over the period, a 16.32% decrease compared to the previous cycle, and a 79.39% increase year-on-year. Recently, the volume of foreign cargo arriving at ports has risen, and supplies from the Chinese interior continue to flow into coastal markets. Downstream buyers in coastal regions have largely limited their procurement to immediate needs, keeping apparent demand weak. Consequently, methanol inventories at ports have begun to accumulate. Coupled with broader macroeconomic sentiment, these factors have driven a downward trend in the coastal methanol market.
As of the close of trading on November 6, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) saw an increase in their closing prices. The primary methanol futures contract, 2701, opened at 3,220 RMB/tonne, reached a high of 3,275 RMB/tonne, and hit a low of 3,156 RMB/tonne, before closing at 3,263 RMB/tonne—an increase of 29 yuan (0.90%) over the previous trading day's settlement price. The contract recorded a trading volume of 969,928 lots, an open interest of 859,846 lots, and a daily increase in open interest of 28,827 lots.
Summary of methanol market prices across various regions as of November 6:
On the cost side, extensive winter stockpiling of coal has yet to commence, and coal prices remain relatively firm, providing decent support to methanol. Consequently, cost-side factors are exerting a somewhat bullish affect on methanol.
On the demand side, downstream olefin production units are operating stably; however, demand from traditional downstream sectors might face downward pressure due to seasonality. As the prices of many downstream items are influenced by methanol costs, the demand-side outlook to methanol leans toward the bearish.
On the supply side, facilities at Zhongmei Yuanxing and Ningxia Changyi have undergone maintenance, while the facility at Shenhua Bayannur has resumed operations. As the volume of capacity taken offline exceeds that which has come back online, the overall capacity utilization rate has declined, leading to a reduction in output. These developments have exerted a bullish affect on the methanol supply landscape.
Regarding international markets, as of the close of trading on November 5, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol price stood at $639-$641 per tonne, down $5 per tonne. The FOB US Gulf methanol price was 159-161 cents per gallon, while the FOB Rotterdam (Europe) methanol price reached €484.5-€485.5 per tonne, an increase of €1 per tonne.
Market Outlook:
Port inventories are expected to continue accumulating, with projected weekly arrival volumes likely to sustain this direction throughout the month. Meanwhile, a slight decline in capacity utilization has led to a reduction in market supply. Taking these factors into account, methanol analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the domestic spot methanol market will primarily see a period of consolidation.
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