Post-holiday phenol ketone market depth interpretation: high inventory pressure, phenol led the rise, acetone pressure differentiation pattern appeared.

After the Spring Festival, China's phenolic ketone market ushered in a test. Domestic and foreign trade sources concentrated in Hong Kong and pre-holiday stock inventory overlay, the market in the supply and demand dislocation difficult to find a new balance. For overseas traders and supply chain practitioners, understanding the current structural contradictions in China's phenolic ketone market is an important prerequisite for studying and judging the trend of supply and demand in the Asia-Pacific region.

1. Market Status: Variety Differentiation under Dual Inventory Pressure

inventory pressure is the most central constraint variable in the current market. Data show that the post-holiday acetone port inventory reached 51500 tons, phenol port inventory up 38500 tons, are all in nearly three years high. At the same time, factory inventories continued to accumulate during the holidays, some factories were affected by the end of the contract, short-term shipment pressure increased significantly. High inventory means that the cost of capital occupation and storage pressure double overlay, the market as a whole buyers and sellers game tends to be cautious.

However, the two varieties in the context of high inventory out of the obvious differentiation of the market, it is worth focusing on:

acetone: Price center of gravity under pressure, slow recovery in demand. The overall post-holiday market stalemate, the focus of the talks focused on 4650 yuan/ton nearby. Downstream users are still in the gradual resumption of work stage, to just need to follow up mainly, active replenishment will be weak. Although the month-end contract brings a small amount of low-cost goods, but the profit margin is limited, the news surface lacks clear guidance, the industry generally wait and see. The only positive signal from the current market comes from MMA (methyl methacrylate) industry demand increment it is expected to form a phased boost to the price of acetone, but the strength still needs to be observed.

Phenol: Regional differentiation is significant, and the sentiment of the sale is dominated. Compared with acetone, phenol performed slightly better after the festival, ushering in a small "open door". There are two driving factors: one is raw material pure benzene prices strong, providing cost-end support; bisphenol A industry active replenishment, the marginal recovery in demand. At the regional level, the northern market supply is tight and East China port high inventory form a sharp contrast, East China's goods holders are reluctant to sell sentiment is strong, the offer is strong, but some of the downstream resumption of work lags behind, the formation of a constraint on the price, the market transaction activity overall general.

2. market outlook research and operational recommendations

supply side: stable operation is the main, new capacity is the biggest variable. In March, the phenolic ketone plant remained stable, with no maintenance plan for the time being, and the overall operating rate of the industry is expected to increase more than 90%. Need to focus on trends in the commissioning of new plants in Shandong once landed, it will have a direct impact on the regional supply and demand pattern. It is worth noting that the current phenolic ketone plant as a whole is still in loss status however, if the market continues to be depressed, it is not ruled out that factories can influence price trends through flexible load adjustment-changes in factory operating rates are the core indicators that traders need to track continuously.

Demand side: MMA boosts acetone, bisphenol A supports phenol, and there is uncertainty about the net increase.

Phenol, bisphenol A start performance is still good, PC (polycarbonate) end demand constitutes a stable basis, other downstream is expected to resume work, demand end there is a gradual recovery expectations, the overall direction is relatively clear.

In acetone, the MMA industry's start-up and new plant production brought incremental demand, is the main positive factors; MIBK (Methyl Isobutyl Ketone) Presence Unit Overhaul Plan, corresponding to the formation of demand reduction, the net increase after the two hedges still need to be dynamically observed, the direction is still unclear.

Comprehensive operation suggestion: the key observation indicator of market trends in the short term is. Resuming Progress and Replenishment Willingness of Small and Medium-sized Downstream Enterprises. If the resumption of work to drive the real release of buying gas, phenolic ketone prices are expected to get rid of the range shock, to achieve a directional breakthrough. In this context, traders are advised to maintain a high inventory environment light warehouse flexible the operation strategy, avoid unilateral bets, focus on tracking the factory operating rate, downstream resumption of work rhythm and Shandong new production capacity production time three core variables.