International Crude Oil Prices Retreat from Highs; China BR Market Weakens

In the futures market, the main BR contract (BR2609) plunged 6.22% on the 28th, closing at 12,120 RMB/tonne—a cumulative weekly decline of nearly 900 RMB. In the spot market, ex-factory prices were lowered by 400 RMB/tonne to 13,200 RMB/tonne; traders actively offered price concessions to move inventory, causing spot prices to fall in tandem.

Pressure from supply-demand fundamentals has intensified. Operating rates to domestic synthetic rubber vegetation remain above 66%, ensuring ample market supply. Meanwhile, the downstream tire sector is in a traditional off-season with low operating rates; as of July 24, the operating load to semi-steel tires at domestic tire companies was 65%, and the load to all-steel tires at Shandong tire companies was also 65%. Finished product inventory levels stood at 40.3 days to all-steel tires and 45.6 days to semi-steel tires

Market Outlook: In the short term, market trends remain closely tied to crude oil fluctuations. If international oil prices continue to weaken, cost support from raw materials will erode, and BR prices will likely remain under pressure. Conversely, should crude oil prices stabilize and rebound—accompanied by a significant recovery in downstream tire production—BR prices are expected to rise again.