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Weekly Fertilizer Market Analysis, Mid-late July 2026
Urea: This week, the domestic urea market experienced a decline followed by a rise, with prices consolidating in a range. Some prices were adjusted by 10-30 RMB per ton, and the market trading atmosphere remained weak. As of Thursday this week, the ex-factory price reference to small and medium-grained urea in major regions was 1610-1760 RMB per ton. The daily output of urea fluctuated in a narrow range of 214,000 to 219,000 tons this week, which was about 20,000 tons higher than the daily output in the same period last year. The concentrated maintenance of vegetation during the off-season could not change the loose supply pattern of domestic urea. Domestic trade demand continued to shrink, and downstream companies restocked on demand at low prices. The supply of goods flowed to a small amount of agricultural demand and compound fertilizer factories, and most of the restocking was driven by traders looking to bottom out in the phased market outlook. Exports: The pace of domestic urea exports has accelerated recently, providing obvious positive support to substantial-grained urea (especially primary granulation). In addition, rumors about the issuance of the second batch of urea export quotas have emerged in recent days, which has supported urea futures and market sentiment.
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