Cost-Push Momentum! China Rubber Industry Chain Prices Rise Overall in Early September

Escalating conflict risks in the Middle East pushed Brent crude oil toward the $100/barrel mark. Prices across the crude oil–naphtha–butadiene/styrene chain rose across the board; combined with tight butadiene supplies, this immediately drove up production costs to synthetic rubbers such as butadiene rubber (BR) and styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR). Natural rubber prices also climbed due to supply-demand dynamics, fueling bullish market expectations. However, orders in the downstream tire and rubber product sectors failed to show significant development; companies primarily restocked on an as-needed basis and showed little willingness to chase higher prices. The inability of end-user demand to consistently absorb upstream price hikes acted as a key factor limiting the extent of the price rally.

Acrylonitrile prices retreated as the supply gap from earlier maintenance closures was filled and production units resumed operations en masse. This shift from tight to loose supply-demand conditions was compounded by weak demand from the ABS and acrylic fiber sectors, downstream resistance to high prices, and a lack of extensive restocking. The fundamental prolonged result in is rapid capacity expansion outpacing the development of downstream consumption.

Market Outlook: In the short term, the rubber sector chain is expected to maintain a pattern of fluctuation with a bullish bias, underpinned by raw material costs. The tight upstream supply situation is unlikely to ease rapidly, maintaining cost support to synthetic rubber and leaving some room to natural rubber prices to rise. However, without substantial improvement in end-user demand, there is insufficient momentum to a sustained rally; the pace of price increases might slow, and there is a risk of a pullback from high levels. The weak direction to acrylonitrile is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Overall, the sector chain is likely to maintain a cost-driven, fluctuating direction through the latter half of September, with future attention focused on downstream operating rates and the arrival of upstream raw materials.