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According to data released by Eurostat on August 13, chemical production in the EU and the euro zone fell sharply by 2.1 per cent in June from the previous month, but overall industrial production in the EU rose slightly by 0.2 per cent over the same period, with the two trends diverging. Chemical production fell across the four major economies, with Italy and Spain falling the most, by 4.2 per cent and 4.1 per cent, respectively, France by 3.3 per cent and Germany by 1.8 per cent.
In June, overall demand in the European market was weak, and high energy costs continued to suppress regional chemical companies. Even with global logistics constraints, imported chemicals still have a competitive advantage, further squeezing the regional market. The weak development in overall manufacturing output was mainly due to higher output in the non-durable consumer goods and energy sectors, which offset production cuts in capital and intermediate goods.
Compared with June last year, the performance of the European chemical sector was divided. Chemical production in the EU and the euro area fell slightly by 0.4 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively. France and Italy cut production significantly, while Spain and Germany achieved a small increase. Overall manufacturing output improved year-on-year, with the EU up 0.6 per cent and the euro area up 0.1 per cent, with output of intermediate, energy and capital goods rising, however consumer goods shrinking.
Business confidence picked up in June as the U. S.-Iran conflict is expected to ease expectations, with the market expecting a fall in raw material costs and improved logistics. However, the Strait of Hormuz has not yet achieved stable navigation, and the increase in production is difficult to continue into the third quarter. The chemical sector is highly influenced by the energy market and can be utilized as a leading indicator of manufacturing prosperity. European manufacturing might face downward pressure due to high energy prices and off-season seasonal demand. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is highly variable, and if the conflict eases, it is expected to boost trade and confidence and drive economic recovery.
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