Methanol Market Prices Were Showing a Marked Upward Trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, from June 5 to June 12 (as of 10:00), domestic methanol quotes at East China ports rose from 3,213 RMB/ton to approximately 3,446 RMB/ton. During this period, prices increased by 7.26% (up 9.07% month-on-month and 45.92% year-on-year). The domestic port methanol market surged strongly as port inventories continued to decline; despite lackluster downstream demand, the volume of tradable goods in regional markets remained low, and shifting international dynamics boosted macroeconomic sentiment. With growing macroeconomic optimism and tight regional supplies, market participants generally adopted a "buy on the rise, not the fall" mentality. Downstream restocking driven by essential needs picked up, trading activity increased significantly, and the inland methanol market also saw a sharp rise in prices.

As of the close of trading on June 12, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed reduce. The main methanol futures contract (2609) opened at 3,029 RMB/ton, reached a high of 3,074 RMB/ton and a low of 2,963 RMB/ton, and closed at 3,010 RMB/ton—down 14 yuan (or 0.46%) from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume stood at 1,042,096 contracts, open interest at 848,577 contracts, and the daily change in open interest was an increase of 10,947 contracts.

Summary of methanol market prices across various regions as of June 12:

Market analysis

On the cost side, security inspections at coal production sites remain rigorous, leading to a slight reduction in supply; however, downstream coal vegetation and traders maintain a cautious purchasing stance, keeping coal prices stable with a firming direction. Methanol costs are being influenced by factors that are generally favorable.

On the demand side, looking at downstream sectors, market prices to glacial acetic acid continued to rise in some regions, the formaldehyde market traded sideways, and the dimethyl ether market remained stable. Prices to most downstream items were influenced by methanol prices, with demand-side factors generally favoring the methanol market.

On the supply side, facilities at Shandong Lianmeng, Xinjiang Zhongtai, Xinjiang Xinye, Gansu Liuhua, and Guizhou Tianfu are undergoing maintenance, while operations at Inner Mongolia Donghua and CNOOC-Kingboard Chemical have resumed. Overall, the volume of lost output exceeds the volume of restored output, leading to a decline in production and a drop in capacity utilization rates; these factors are exerting a bullish affect on the methanol supply outlook.

Regarding overseas markets, as of the close on June 11, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market settled at $599-601 per tonne. The FOB US Gulf market settled at 154-156 cents per gallon, while the FOB Rotterdam market in Europe settled at €500-502 per tonne.

Market Outlook

Overall, downstream consumer demand has remained relatively stable, showing only limited fluctuations. Driven by the offsetting impacts of simultaneous contractions in both supply and demand, the supply-demand gap in the domestic methanol market continues to narrow. Overall, SunSirs methanol analysts anticipate that the domestic methanol spot market will primarily undergo a period of consolidation.