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According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the TDI market in East China fluctuated within a narrow range last week. As of July 24, the average market price in East China stood at 16,533 RMB/ton, down from 16,633 RMB/ton on July 20; this represents a weekly decline of 0.60% and a year-on-year increase of 16.16%.
Market analysis
The TDI market remained in a stalemate last week. On the supply side, conditions continued to tighten; major producers frequently suspended price quotations and sales, maintaining firm price stances. Conversely, downstream demand remained sluggish with low market engagement; traders adopted a cautious approach, leading to a slight softening in transaction prices.
Supply side: Wanhua's 200,000-ton unit in Xinjiang is undergoing a 25-day maintenance shutdown. Gansu Yinguang has scheduled maintenance to its 150,000-ton unit in early August. One of Wanhua's TDI units in Fujian has experienced an unplanned shutdown.
Cost side: The toluene market has recently been operating at high levels, driven by rising crude oil prices and supportive supply-demand dynamics. Following a sustained rally, the market lacks fresh bullish catalysts, and downstream willingness to purchase at elevated prices is limited; consequently, the risk of a pullback from these highs is gradually mounting. Toluene price increases are expected to slow in the short term.
Market outlook
Analysts at SunSirs believe that, amidst the tug-of-war between supply and demand, the TDI market is currently in a state of consolidation and stalemate; barring any significant improvement in demand, the market is expected to fluctuate within a specific range in the short term.
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