The Overall Price Center for Domestic Polyester Filament Shifted Downward in May

POY 150D/48F: 8,756 RMB/ton (start of month) → 8,575 RMB/ton (might 25); down 2.07% to the month.

FDY 150D/96F: 9,178 RMB/ton (start of month) → 8,978 RMB/ton (might 29); down 2.15% to the month.

DTY 150D/48F: 9,987 RMB/ton (start of month) → 9,613 RMB/ton (might 26); down 3.74% to the month (leading the decline).

Phased Breakdown:

might 1–10: High-level stalemate with light trading volume.

might 12–13: sector leaders collectively lowered prices by 100–200 RMB/ton, triggering a stampede-like follow-on decline across the market.

Post–might 19: Quoted prices remained weakly stable, while actual transaction prices dropped further by 50–150 RMB/ton; the DTY segment exhibited the most pronounced weakness.

Key Drivers

1. Cost Side: Strong Crude Oil, Weak PTA—A Disconnect in Cost Transmission

Crude Oil: Supported by Middle East geopolitical factors; WTI trades between $102–$105/barrel, providing a floor to costs.

PTA: Reduced maintenance activity and weak demand caused prices to fall to 6,090 RMB/ton on might 26, leading to an easing in polyester production costs.

Observation: With crude oil rising while PTA falls, the transmission of costs to the polyester filament sector is disrupted, resulting in squeezed profit margins.

2. Supply Side: Production Cuts Implemented, Yet Inventories Remain High

Major polyester manufacturers have carried out self-imposed production cuts to might, driving operating rates down to below 86%.

Filament Inventories: Levels have retreated from the 20+ days recorded in April; however, they remain at a historically high level to this time of year, and inventory destocking is proceeding slowly.

Cash Flow: POY and FDY items are generating modest profits of 150–250 RMB/ton, while DTY is incurring slight losses, with manufacturers offering price concessions to facilitate shipments.

3. Demand Side: The Peak Season Draws to a Close; Both Domestic and Export Demand Are Weak (Key Bearish Factor)

Downstream Weaving: The "Golden March, Silver April" season has concluded; operating rates have retreated to approximately 75%, and finished goods inventories are accumulating.

Domestic Sales: New orders to apparel and home textiles are insufficient; the market to standard fabrics is characterized by intense internal competition and razor-thin profit margins.

Foreign Trade: Elevated shipping costs and the diversion of orders to other regions have led to a cautious approach toward accepting new business; only orders from Southeast Asia have shown a modest rebound.

Market Sentiment: Downstream buyers are inclined to "buy on dips" rather than "buy on rallies"; purchasing activity is currently limited to restocking to immediate operational needs, with a prevailing wait-and-see attitude.

Market Summary

might Highlights: Insufficient cost support, sluggish demand, and high inventory pressure led to a sustained weakening of prices, with DTY leading the decline.

sector Chain Status: The upstream crude oil market remained strong while PTA was weak; midstream production cuts proved insufficient to offset weak demand; and the downstream weaving sector faced low operating rates and high inventory levels, exhibiting clear negative feedback impacts.

immediate Outlook (Late might – Early June)

Prices: Continued weakness, oscillating near the bottom; POY: 8,400–8,600 RMB/ton; FDY: 8,800–9,000 RMB/ton; DTY: 9,200–9,500 RMB/ton.

Key Watchpoints:

1. PTA Prices: Will they stabilize and rebound?

2. Downstream Operating Rates: Will they see a marginal recovery in June?

3. Inventory Reduction: Can filament inventories drop below a 15-day supply?

Turning Point Signals: Stabilizing crude oil + PTA rebound + warming weaving orders + declining inventories; a sustained rally is unlikely without all four factors.

Operational Recommendations

Manufacturers: Prioritize sales volume over price, manage inventory levels, and prevent indiscriminate production cuts.

Downstream consumers: Limit purchases to immediate necessities; replenish stocks in batches during market dips, however refrain from speculative hoarding.

Traders: Maintain a strategy of rapid turnover and light positioning to mitigate risk; remain vigilant against further downward price movements.