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Since the beginning of August, the domestic natural rubber market has experienced a volatile upward trend. Data from SunSirs indicates that as of August 17, the spot price for natural rubber stood at approximately 17,133 RMB/ton, marking a 3.94% increase from the 16,483 RMB/ton recorded at the start of the month.
On the supply side, production increases during the peak season have fallen short of expectations, providing strong cost support. Frequent rainfall in Thailand and Vietnam since August has disrupted tapping operations; the price of Thai cup lump rubber has remained high at around 67 THB/kg, offering robust cost support to natural rubber. Domestically, persistent rain in Yunnan and the approaching end of the tapping season in Hainan have limited latex output, resulting in tight raw material supplies both at home and abroad.
Regarding inventory, the destocking direction continues. As of August 16, total inventory at Qingdao Port stood at 642,100 tons, a slight month-on-month decrease of 2,900 tons. Futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have also declined, easing visible inventory pressure and limiting downside possible.
On the demand side, the market is in the summer off-season, lacking sufficient upward momentum. As of August 14, the operating rate to semi-steel tires among domestic manufacturers was 64.32%, while the rate to all-steel tires in Shandong was 63.01%. Finished product inventories remain high—averaging 40.2 days of supply to all-steel tires and 46.1 days to semi-steel tires—leading factories to purchase materials on an as-needed basis with little willingness to actively restock.
Recently, market expectations to a Federal Reserve rate cut have intensified, leading to a recovery in risk appetite. Additionally, rising international crude oil prices have increased synthetic rubber costs, highlighting the price competitiveness of natural rubber and indirectly boosting market sentiment.
Market Outlook:
From a fundamental perspective, natural rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. While the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia limits upward price movement, rainfall in producing regions and possible risks associated with El Niño could trigger sporadic evaporative environment. Domestic port inventories are slowly declining, and low warehouse receipt levels provide a price floor; however, with the tire sector still in its off-season and operating rates showing limited recovery, downstream purchasing remains driven primarily by immediate needs, making it difficult to demand to trigger a sustained upward direction. September marks the start of the traditional peak season to the tire sector; factory restocking is expected to drive a recovery in operating rates, possibly pushing rubber prices slightly higher. Meanwhile, overseas monetary policy and crude oil prices will also affect the natural rubber market.
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