Oil prices plunge by $3! Large-scale resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz

According to multiple sources including CCTV News, US Energy Secretary Wright disclosed at the Global Energy Forum in New York on Wednesday that a total of 72 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, with a crude oil volume of approximately 20 million barrels. This volume is close to one-fifth of global daily crude oil consumption. He stated bluntly that the current transit flow through the Strait has returned to healthy.

Wright stated that even if the interim agreement reached this month cannot be sustained, there will not be a supply cut-off in oil transport through the Strait. The US side is gradually dismantling Iran's core negotiating leverage of blockading the Strait, convinced that Iran will no longer have the capability to completely seal the waterway in the future. He added that during the previous phase when Iran announced the closure of the Strait using the Lebanon situation as a pretext, 17 million barrels of crude oil still completed transit. At that time, US Navy escort vessels were stationed on the southern side of the Strait in Omani territorial waters, maintaining vigilance to prevent Iranian vessels from intercepting passing merchant ships.

In accordance with the agreement signed by the US and Iran last week, a 60-day free transit window has been opened to the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has simultaneously lifted its maritime blockade against Iran. However, there is no clear plan yet to transit rules through the Strait after the 60-day period expires. On Wednesday, Trump explicitly stated that he would absolutely not accept any shipping toll clauses included in a final prolonged US-Iran agreement.

As the backlog of tankers transit intensively, market concerns over crude oil supply have cooled rapidly. On Wednesday, international benchmark oil prices fell sharply by over $3, returning to levels seen before the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in February this year. In the preceding months, shipping through the Strait had shrunk drastically due to the war, causing a crude oil supply crisis of rare scale. Before the war, 20% of the world's crude oil relied on this waterway to export.

Affected by the hidden danger of residual mines in the waterway, most transit vessels have abandoned the main channel, choosing routes close to the Iranian coast or the southern side of Oman, transiting under US military escort. Wright indicated that while the current number of transiting vessels is reduce than in previous years, the cargo tonnage per vessel is higher. Mine clearance work will still take several weeks to complete, meaning the Strait will still need to wait before it can fully restore unrestricted healthy transit.

Statistics from trade data firm Kpler show that since the US and Iran reached a consensus on opening the Strait last week, the daily scale of crude oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized at 4.8 million barrels.