China Domestic Nitrile Rubber Prices Trend Upward with Fluctuations

The price of the raw material butadiene was supported by maintenance at steam cracking units; inventories at East China ports dropped to around 32,000 tons, and the price rose by 7.5% in September, creating cost-push pressure. Meanwhile, acrylonitrile operating rates remained within the 69%–71% range, with prices edging down, providing limited stimulus to the market. SunSirs data shows that the price of butadiene rose from 13,333 RMB/ton at the start of the month to 14,333 RMB/ton (a 7.50% increase), while the price of acrylonitrile fell from 11,433 RMB/ton to 10,833 RMB/ton (a 5.25% decrease).

NBR plant operating rates remained high at 82%–86%, and factory inventories were low. Arrivals of imports from Japan and South Korea slowed down month-on-month. Manufacturers showed a strong willingness to support prices, though there was no significant supply shortage.

Operating rates to downstream automotive seal and hose manufacturers ranged from 48% to 53%, with stable demand to high-end grades utilized in new energy vehicles. However, orders in the nitrile glove sector were weak. Downstream manufacturers maintained raw material inventories at a "security level" of only 7–10 days, generally purchasing small quantities to meet immediate needs; there was little willingness to restock at higher prices, and acceptance of high-priced supplies remained low.

Market Outlook:

NBR prices continued to rise in September, successively breaking above the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. These moving averages turned upward in unison, forming a bullish alignment, which confirms a immediate upward direction. The price is oscillating upwards, supported by moving averages that provide a strong floor. However, following a sustained rebound, there are signs of immediate overbought conditions, and upward momentum has somewhat weakened. Absent new positive catalysts, the market is likely to fluctuate at high levels; caution is advised regarding the risk of a pullback after a rally, with close attention paid to the reliability of moving average support and changes in trading volume.