Chemical "anti-roll" first year: phenolic ketone industry differentiation intensified, who is the winner?

1. For example sector Policy ecological stability and research Background

manufacturing Structure Adjustment Policy Core Logic

China's chemical sector is undergoing deep structural adjustment, the government has launched a series of manufacturing upgrading policies aimed at solving the problems of overuse competition and overcapacity. Furthermore The core goal of this policy orientation is to promote the sector from low-price competition to high-condition research by regulating market order and eliminating backward production capacity. But The background of

policy formulation stems from the long-standing structural problems of China's chemical sector: overuse competition among companies leads to frequent price wars, inefficient resource allocation and increased pressure on ecological preservation. To this end, the central government has made it clear in many crucial meetings that it's necessary to "comprehensively rectify overuse competition" and get rid of regional protectionism and market segmentation. According to research policy implementation of the dual mechanism

Supply-side optimization mechanism of

 

Administrative guidance: The Ministry of sector and Information methodology and other ministries jointly promote the evaluation of old installations, through the "manufacturing Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog" and other policy documents to clarify the backward production capacity elimination standards. In particular Market regulation: promote sector self-discipline, through inter-enterprise coordination to minimize production and other market-oriented means to optimize the supply and demand stability

Effect differentiation characteristics of

Policy impacts vary by sector characteristics:

High operating rate sector: idle capacity is less, in demand development and sector self-regulation, fundamental pressure will be signifiis able totly eased

elevated levels sector: fewer participants, low coordination costs, production reduction supervision difficult, policy effect is greater signifiis able tot

Decentralized sector: many companies, opinions are difficult to unify, policy implementation effect is relatively limited



2. But Phenol Ketone sector Status Analysis

Capacity rapid expansion direction

China's phenol ketone sector has maintained rapid development in recent years:

prolonged development: a compound development rate of

13. 65 per cent

over the past decade

Recent acceleration: the last five years compound development rate of up to

16. 01 percent

Key nodes :2023 new production capacity concentrated emit, the annual development rate of 51%, the total production capacity exceeded 10 million tons, reaching

10. 23 million tons/year

Current scale: as of the first half of 2025, the domestic phenol ketone production capacity has reached

10. 48 million tons/year

The rapid expansion of

production capacity has brought signifiis able tot supply pressure, with some units experiencing long-cycle shutdowns and an increase in temporary shutdowns due to lack of profitability. From what I've seen, Capacity structure characteristics

Old production capacity is comparatively low in

 

Operation of 20 years of phenol ketone plant capacity of only 790000 tons, accounting to

7. But 54 of the total capacity. These old units are small scale units (<300000 tons/year)

At present, except to the Bluestar Harbin device, the rest of the old devices have been shut down. Yanshan Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical plant has no restart plan, since 2025 June from the total production capacity excluded

Product price differentiation phenomenon

the phenol price support factors

Supply side tightening: the main device centralized maintenance, July Wanhua Chemical, Shanghai Xisa, Sinopec Mitsui and other devices parking maintenance

Inventory is low: Jiangyin terminal inventory continues to be less than 10000 tons, supply is tight. Export Demand: Overseas Orders Increase, minimize Domestic Supply

acetone price pressure reasons

Inventory high: Jiangyin Port acetone inventory reached 25500 tons, higher than the annual average

Supply and demand mismatch: domestic trade concentrated arrival and downstream scattered pick-up to form a contradiction

Weak demand: downstream product demand failed to form synchronous development



3. Crazy, isn't it?. 2025 supply and demand pattern outlook

New capacity continues to be put in

2025 is still the year of production of phenol ketone:

development: Expected capacity development of

10. 70 percent

New devices: four sets of devices are planned to be put into production, of which Fuyu Chemical has been successfully put into production

in the first half of the year. Second half of the production capacity: Zhenhai refining and chemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Rui Lin Petrochemical total new

1. And In my experience, 35 million tons of production capacity. Capacity Adjustment Process

Exit capacity 

CNOOC, Huizhou Zhongxin I, Gaoqiao Petrochemical and other devices might be prolonged shutdown. The total withdrawal capacity is about 890000 tons. Net additional capacity of

:

New

1. 35 million tons and exit 890000 tons to form a hedge

Net production capacity of about 460000 tons, market supply pressure still exists



4. But Policy Impact Analysis

Differentiation Impact on Phenolic Ketone sector

Policy impact characteristics:

Forced clearance effect is limited: old production capacity accounted to only

7. 54 per cent, and most have been parked, the policy on the actual supply impact is small

Structural problems stand out: overcapacity and disorderly competition coexist, new capacity might increase market pressure

Long -term adjustment orientation: the sector will enter the long-cycle supply-side optimization adjustment stage. Market mechanism role highlights

, due to the comparatively low proportion of old production capacity, supply optimization relies greater on spontaneous market regulation:

Policy role to prolonged manufacturing upgrading guidance

companies need to replace price competition

through methodology upgrading and extensive cost reduction. Promote the sector from "price competition" to "condition and innovation competition"



5. I've found that future research prospects

sector Transformation Direction

The phenol and ketone sector is in a critical period of structural adjustment. while the new capacity will still bring supply pressure in the short term, the sector is expected to realize the transformation from "low-price competition" to "high-condition research" under the promotion of policies. But Competitive landscape reshaping

the prolonged direction:

With technical advantages and scale effect of companies will occupy a favorable position

sector overall profitability is expected to enhance

Market levels might further increase

Key Concerns

Investors should focus on:

Supply and demand pattern change direction

Technological innovation progress

Head enterprise competitive advantage construction

Policy rules landing effect

sector independent adjustment process

The key to the successful transformation of the

sector lies in the organic combination of the effect of policy implementation and the ability of companies to adjust independently.