2026-2030, Summary of Latest Progress of Large-scale Refining and Chemical Projects under Construction in China!

1. Project Panorama: Three Echelons, Time Window Focused on 2026-2030

china's national policy has certain restrictions on the overall scale of the chemical industry, but with the elimination of old equipment and the early approval of the project has been landed, there are still a number of under construction and proposed refining integration projects are being promoted. The industry generally believes that this is very likely to be the last batch of large-scale refining and chemical projects in China, and its capacity release will have a profound impact on the global chemical supply pattern.

First echelon: possible production in 2026 (3 projects)

china's Liaoning Huajin Ami Fine Chemical and New Materials Project is the largest single project in this batch, with a total investment of over 80 billion yuan and a planned 1.5 million tons of oil refining +1.65 million tons of ethylene. At present, the hoisting of large-scale equipment has been completed by more than 90%, and 28 of the 32 units have been started. There is a high probability that they will be put into operation in the second half of 2026, which will directly strengthen the supply capacity of ethylene raw materials in Northeast China. China's Guangdong Maoming Petrochemical Refinery Transformation and Upgrading and Ethylene Upgrading Project has a total investment of over 30 billion yuan, with ethylene capacity expanded to 1.64 million tons. Some units have entered the commissioning process and are initially planned to be put into operation in 2026. Its core logic is to "reduce oil and increase production" rather than simply expand production, which will substantially improve the supply structure of chemical raw materials in southern China. The total investment of the Tahe Refining and Chemical Integration Project in Xinjiang, China exceeds 29 billion yuan, with 5 million tons of oil refining, 800000 tons of ethylene and downstream supporting facilities planned. It should be noted that the project is still at the peak stage of civil engineering installation. The oil refining and aromatics plant is initially planned to start in 2028. The actual production of the ethylene plant is expected to be significantly delayed from the earlier expectations around October 2029. Overseas practitioners need to correct the expectations in time.

Second echelon: 2027-2030 production (5 projects)

china Guangxi Petrochemical 400000 tons/year EVA project (including 300000 tons of tubular method and 100000 tons of kettle method) started in January 2026, the initial plan to put into production after 2027, photovoltaic materials, foaming materials and other sub-varieties of supply and demand balance is worth continuous tracking. With a total investment of 35.7 billion yuan, the Yueyang Ethylene Project of Sinopec in Hunan Province, China, plans to put 1 million tons of ethylene, 14 sets of downstream units such as styrene and ABS, and initially plans to put them into operation around 2027. China's Shandong Qilu Petrochemical Lu Oil Lu Refining Transformation and Upgrading Project has a total investment of 24.5 billion yuan. It plans to have 10 million tons of oil refining +1 million tons of ethylene, which is called "recreating a Qilu Petrochemical". It will start construction in September 2025 and is initially planned to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2027. China's Tianjin Petrochemical Nangang Ethylene Project plans 1 million tons of vinyl high-end new materials, with key products covering EVA and fine chemicals, which are initially planned to be put into production after 2027. The largest volume is the second phase of China's Fujian Zhongshagu Lei refining and chemical integration project, with a total investment of 71.1 billion yuan. It is planned to have 16 million tons of oil refining +1.5 million tons of ethylene and downstream supporting facilities. It is currently the largest refining and chemical integration project in China. It is initially planned to be put into operation before 2030. Its volume will have an overall impact on the overall refining and chemical product pattern in China and even Asia.

Third echelon: construction may start in 2026 and put into production after 2030 (3 projects)

china's Dalian PetroChina Xizaandao Relocation Project has a total investment of over 68 billion yuan, with 10 million tons of oil refining and 1.2 million tons of ethylene planned. It is planned to start construction in 2026 and put into operation after 2030. It is China's first large-scale refinery relocation project. The total investment of Zhongke Refining and Chemical Phase II project exceeds 38 billion yuan, with 1.2 million tons of ethylene and downstream fine chemicals planned. The initial plan is to start construction in 2026 and put into production after 2028. The total investment of the million-ton ethylene project in Luoyang, Henan Province, China exceeds 27 billion yuan. It plans 1 million tons of ethylene and 13 sets of supporting facilities such as HDPE, PP, styrene and ethylene oxide to fill the gap in large-scale ethylene production capacity in the Central Plains region and is expected to start construction in 2026.

2. global impact: structural upgrading capacity wave, systematic revaluation of supply and demand balance

if all the above projects are carried out as planned, China will add more than 80 million tons of oil refining and more than 10 million tons of ethylene, and simultaneously add more production capacity of aromatics, polyolefins, POE, PX, EVA, styrene, ABS and other varieties.

This wave of construction presents two distinctive features: clear direction of oil reduction and increase-- In the projects under construction and proposed construction, the production ratio of oil products has decreased significantly, the conversion ratio of chemical raw materials has continued to increase, and China's petrochemical industry is systematically migrating to downstream high value-added products; regional layout tends to be balanced-- The distribution of the project covers the major regions of Northeast, Northwest, East, South and Central China, which will change the current pattern of regional imbalance in the supply of chemical raw materials and have a restructuring effect on the existing cross-regional trade flow.

For overseas traders and supply chain practitioners, the time window for this round of capacity release is concentrated in 2026-2030, and the supply and demand balance of bulk varieties such as ethylene, polyolefin, styrene, ABS and EVA will face a systematic revaluation. It is the most strategically valuable supply chain homework to judge the production rhythm and regional flow of each variety in advance, and to evaluate the narrowing timeline of the export window to China.