2026 (April 13-19) Acetone Weekly: cost support weakens, supply and demand game dominates the downside

1. Market Review: Price accelerates downward, logic completes switch

from April 13 to 19, 2026, China's acetone market continued to be weak. Spot prices in Jiangsu fell from 8,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7,650 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 4.38 per cent in the week, and the one-week decline exceeded the performance of phenol in the same period. What is more noteworthy is that this week the core driving logic of the market has clearly switched-from the "cost-driven" mode caused by the geopolitical conflict in the first quarter to the "supply and demand game" mode in the second quarter. This shift marks a new pricing cycle for the acetone market.

The supply side showed passive contraction: Shanghai Xisa (210000 tons/year) stopped for maintenance, Huizhou Zhongxin switched operation, Changchun Chemical dropped negative, the operating rate of phenol ketone plant dropped 2.5 percentage points to 84.0 percent month-on-week, and acetone Jiangyin Port inventory was decontaminated by 6500 tons to 26000 tons, down about 20 percent from last week. However, the tightening of supply is not an active production limit to protect prices, but a passive behavior under the profit squeeze-phenol ketone production profits this week from positive to negative, from 342 yuan/ton to -8 yuan/ton, down as much as 102, the enthusiasm of the device operation has been a substantial blow.

2. fundamentals: weak demand is structural suppression, cost support has now diverged

weakness on the demand side is the core source of pressure on the downside. MMA industry operating rate from 59% further down to about 55%, although the bisphenol A operating rate remained at about 74%, but Covestro device long stop, effective demand there is a discount, epoxy propane price high stalemate, downstream resistance is obvious, demand follow-up is limited. Downstream enterprises generally take just need to purchase, on-demand replenishment strategy, speculative demand is almost extinct, "price without market" situation continues. PTA and other industries more than 22 million tons of production capacity to stop production, further inhibit the overall chemical raw materials procurement market.

The cost support end appears internal differentiation, the support logic is not as strong as before. The price of pure benzene in the upstream remains resilient-Shandong region rose 2.25 to 8,626.67 yuan/ton in the week, providing a certain cost bottom for acetone. However, the price of propylene began to weaken, with the spot price in East China fluctuating at about 9,525 yuan/ton, while the spot price in Shandong fell by 195 yuan/ton to 9,155 yuan/ton, intensifying the cost-side differentiation. At the same time, repeated U. S.-Iran negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz has not yet fully resumed navigation, geo-risk premiums are still residual, but the boost to market sentiment has been significantly weakened.

Downstream product profit differentiation, industrial chain conduction continues to be blocked. The price of bisphenol A dropped from 10,840 yuan/ton to 10,320 yuan/ton, but the profit margin was fair and the demand for acetone was still rigid. MMA fell back after a high stalemate, and the capacity utilization rate was about 60%, unable to effectively digest high-priced raw materials. This pattern means that even if the price of acetone falls, the repair of downstream digestive capacity will take time.

3. Core Contradiction and Future Market Judgment

the fundamental contradiction in the current market is that the "fragile passive supply contraction" cannot counter the "solid structural weakness in demand". The decline in the operating rate and inventory de-stocking provided some support, but in the downstream industry generally losses or small profits, end consumption conduction blocked background, this support is difficult to continue to translate into price stabilization of the power.

The main risk variables need to be continuously tracked:

lido direction: If the situation in the Middle East escalates again, crude oil and pure benzene prices are likely to rebound quickly, reshaping the cost-driven logic; China's first quarter GDP growth of 5.0 percent year-on-year, macro fundamentals are OK, if the downstream replenishment demand for super-seasonal recovery, will constitute a phase of support.

Negative direction: weak demand risk probability rating of "high", if MMA, bisphenol A operating rate further decline, negative feedback chain may deepen.

Short-term outlook: in the next one to two weeks, the acetone market is expected to continue the weak pattern of volatility. Until there is a clear signal of recovery in demand, the marginal contraction on the supply side is difficult to support prices on its own. For overseas buyers, the current Chinese acetone export window is still closed (negative import profits), but if domestic prices continue to decline, export competitiveness may improve marginally, it is worth tracking. It is recommended that all parties pay close attention to the weekly operating rate data of China's major downstream products and the geopolitical trends of the United States and Iraq. These two variables will be the key signals to break the current balance.