Isopropyl alcohol industry chain weekly report: upstream differentiation intensified, isopropyl alcohol fell first.

1. market review: serious differentiation within the industrial chain, isopropanol under the deepest pressure

from April 20 to 27, 2026, China's isopropanol industry chain showed an operating pattern of "upstream differentiation, middle and downstream pressure", and the core logic of the market continued to switch from "cost-driven" in the first quarter to "supply and demand game" in the second quarter.

Acrylic performance is relatively the strongest, Shandong spot trading range to maintain 9,250-9,350 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 3.16, mainly due to PDH device maintenance led to tight supply, superimposed on the Hormuz Strait blockade brought about by the geo-premium support. Acetone continued to be weak but stabilized in the second half of the week. East China spot fell to 7,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Then it rebounded slightly driven by the centralized increase of 300 yuan/ton quotations by Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical, Gaohua Materials and other manufacturers. Zhou rose 2.04 percent to close at 7,200-7,650 yuan/ton.

Isopropyl alcohol became the biggest drop in phenol ketone industry chain this week, with Zhou du down 4.85 percent, Shandong ex-factory prices falling to 8,375-8,400 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 8,525 yuan/ton, and South China 8,600 yuan/ton. Ningbo Juhua lowered 300 yuan/ton to 8,400 yuan/ton on April 22, Lihua Yiweiyuan maintained 8,400 yuan/ton temporarily stable, and the benchmark price of the business agency reported 8,760 yuan/ton on April 26. The spread between isopropanol and acetone narrowed to about 1,175-1,600 yuan/tonne, taking into account processing costs (acetone method about 500 yuan/tonne), the profits of both routes have been compressed to a small profit or even loss range.

2. fundamentals in-depth analysis: triple pressure superposition, short-term difficult to see trend reversal

supply end: passive contraction but limited support. The operating rate of phenol ketone plant further decreased from 86.5 percent to 84.0 percent-Shanghai Xisa (210000 tons/year) parking maintenance, Huizhou Zhongxin switching operation, Changchun Chemical negative, the supply side was passive contraction. Phenolic ketone production profit from the previous week -8 yuan/ton slightly repaired to 242 yuan/ton, but still far below the historical average of about 500 yuan/ton, the device active production increase power is insufficient. Isopropyl alcohol industry operating rate of about 47%, up 3 percentage points month-on-month, Lihua Yiweiyuan (200000 tons/year), Ningbo Juhua (100000 tons/year), Huizhou Yuxin (50000 tons/year) and other major devices are operating normally, Hengli Petrochemical cargo is expected to arrive in the near future, short-term supply there is marginal incremental pressure.

Demand side: structural weakness, just demand-led. Isopropyl alcohol's largest downstream solvent industry (accounting for about 45% of demand) has entered the traditional off-season, and the willingness to purchase coatings and inks is low. The pharmaceutical sector (about 25%) has stable demand but the pace of replenishment is flat. High-end demand in the field of electronic cleaning (about 15%) has maintained growth, but the total proportion is too small to pull the whole. The operating rate of MMA industry further dropped from 59% to about 55%, bisphenol A maintained 74%, but Covestro's device was stopped for a long time, and the terminal factory was mainly engaged in purchasing, and the situation of "price but no market" continued.

Export side: dual policy barriers suppress export windows. China exported about 148000 tonnes of isopropanol in 2025, but the export market has been under significant pressure since 2026-India maintains a 24.04 per cent anti-dumping duty (final sunset review), demand is seasonally sluggish during Ramadan in Southeast Asia, imports only 855 tonnes of isopropanol in March, and exports are also compressed. This two-way blocked trade pattern makes it difficult for domestic supply to be effectively channelled through the export channel, creating additional downward pressure on prices.

The internal contradictions at the cost level deserve attention. Propylene rose by 3.16 while acetone rebounded synchronously, and the cost transmission of the two process routes was not smooth: the price difference between propylene method isopropanol and propylene was about -875 to -550 yuan/ton, and the production profit was estimated to be -200 to -50 yuan/ton; Although the acetone method has improved the cost of raw materials due to the decline of acetone, the price of isopropanol has dropped even more, and the profit is also in the marginal range of -100 to +100 yuan/ton. Two-way pressure on profits will form a natural production reduction mechanism from the production side, but the effect will take time.

3. outlook and operational recommendations

in the short term, China's isopropanol industry chain is expected to maintain a pattern of "high cost volatility and weak demand. In terms of propylene, PDH profit has been restored to a profitable state. In May, the downward space of the start-up rate is limited, the spot price remains tight, and the price is expected to be supported in the range of 9,000-9,500 yuan/ton. Acetone supply and demand game continues, expected to fluctuate between 7,000-7,500 yuan/ton; Isopropyl alcohol is weak and sorted out, paying attention to the downstream stock situation before May Day and the marginal recovery of export orders. The short-term operation range is 8,300-8,800 yuan/ton.

In the medium and long term, the isopropanol industry is facing the double pressure of overcapacity and slowing demand. High-end subdivision varieties such as electronic-grade isopropanol may become a breakthrough in differentiation-high-end demand driven by semiconductor and panel industries will maintain growth, while China's electronic-grade production capacity is still short and import dependence is still high. This subdivision track deserves the continuous attention of overseas suppliers and traders.

Operational recommendations: For purchasers, it is recommended to control the stock of raw materials, mainly to replenish the stock on demand, to avoid chasing propylene; Acetone traders can make up a small amount of stock at low prices and pay attention to the demand recovery signal after May Day. Isopropyl alcohol production enterprises need to strictly control the inventory level, downstream users can purchase in small quantities at low prices, waiting for the directional drive to be clear.