China Acrylonitrile Market Weekly Report (May 22-May 29, 2026): Triple Pressure Overlay Pressure Operation, Maintenance Expected to Provide Periodic Bottom Support

Last week, China's acrylonitrile market continued to be weak, the price center of gravity moved down in a narrow range. The benchmark price of the business agency remained around 10283.33 yuan/ton, down 2.37 from 10533.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The fundamentals from the early "supply and demand double increase" switch to "supply and demand flat", the industry capacity utilization rate rose to 74.5, but the downstream demand follow-up is weak, the market trading atmosphere continued to weaken.

Price and cost: spot across the line down, losses narrowed but still deep in negative zone

spot prices generally fell across regions this week. The price increase from East China port dropped from 10900-11100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10500-10700 yuan/ton at the weekend, with a weekly drop of about 400 yuan/ton. The short-distance delivery price in Shandong market dropped from 10650-10750 yuan/ton to 10300-10400 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of about 350 yuan/ton. Sinopec East China and Shandong Corul simultaneously lowered the listing price of 200 yuan/ton, traders allowed profits to ship, and downstream buying was mainly based on just-needed price reduction.

On the cost side, Shandong propylene was about 9110 yuan/ton on May 29, and the average weekly price was about 9100 yuan/ton, down about 380 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia fell simultaneously. According to the comprehensive calculation, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week is about 11507 yuan/ton (month-on-month -2.17), and the average production profit is about -686 yuan/ton. Although the month-on-month improvement is 76 yuan/ton, the industry is still deeply in the loss range. The simultaneous downward movement of costs has depressed the bottom support of the price, making it more difficult to repair the price.

Supply and demand pattern: operating rate rose to 74.5 percent, downstream off-season pressure is beginning to emerge

the supply side continues to expand. Industry capacity utilization rose from 72.11 per cent to 74.46 per cent this week, with weekly production of about 87000 tonnes, up 2.35 per cent month-on-month. Shanghai Seko 260000 tons of plant on May 21 to restart the contribution of the main increment, Jilin Petrochemical negative to 90%, Zhejiang Petrochemical load synchronous increase.

However, the inflection point of supply is already within sight: Sirbon plans to reduce its negative balance in June, Liaoning Jinfa (260000 tons) and Tianchen Qixiang (130000 tons) are all planned to be overhauled by the end of June, and the supply is expected to contract again in mid-to-late June, which is the most important phased support logic in the current market.

Demand-side follow-up is weak. Acrylic fiber operating rate rebounded sharply to 37.70 percent (15.24 percentage points per week), mainly due to the restart of Jilin Chemical Fiber's Huashong spinning 150000 tons and Jimeng 155000 tons of equipment, but the improvement of terminal textile orders was limited, and the real demand pull was limited. ABS operating rate is only 59%, some low-end materials have fallen below 10000 yuan/ton, June into the traditional off-season of household appliances, demand is expected to shrink further.

In terms of inventory, the port inventory is about 23000 tons (1000 tons per week) and the in-plant inventory is about 46500 tons (500 tons per week). The overall inventory is still in a controllable range. However, if the demand continues to follow up, there is a cumulative risk that the inventory will approach the 50000-ton mark.

Post-market judgment and operational recommendations

the current market is in the "supply expansion, cost down, demand flat" triple pressure overlay situation. In terms of profits, Liaoning Jinfa and Tianchen Qixiang's maintenance expectations at the end of June constitute supply contraction support. The average loss of the industry exceeds -600 yuan/ton, which strengthens the willingness of producers to support prices and limits the space for further deep decline. On the negative side, the U. S.-Iran negotiations released a easing signal, international crude oil fell sharply (WTI fell to $88.76/barrel), cost support center of gravity continued to move down, downstream ABS, acrylic pessimistic atmosphere is not dispersed.

It is expected that the narrow and weak oscillation will continue next week, with the mainstream negotiation range of 10300-10700 yuan/ton in East China and 10100-10500 yuan/ton in Shandong.

For the purchaser, it is recommended to purchase on demand, maintain 7-10 days of reasonable inventory, in mid-to-late June before the maintenance landing can be moderately locked forward contracts. For traders, maintain low inventory operations, to sell fixed, priority out of the spot, to avoid the accumulation of price exposure in the downward cycle.