The Domestic Epichlorohydrin Market Faced an Imbalance Between Supply and Demand, and Prices Fell

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Last week, the domestic market for epichlorohydrin (ECH) continued its steep downward trajectory, with the decline in prices proving difficult to halt. According to data from SunSirs' monitoring and analysis system, as of May 29, the benchmark price for epichlorohydrin stood at 11,400 RMB/ton—a decrease of 12.31% compared to the beginning of the month.

Price Influencing Factors:

Raw Materials: Driven by evaporative and weakening international oil prices, naphtha prices have retreated, and the price center to propylene—a key feedstock—has shifted downward, though overall market dynamics remain within a phase of high-level fluctuation. The market to raw glycerol continues its weak, downward trajectory, characterized by sluggish trading activity; in East China, mainstream quotations to manufacturing-grade (99.5%) bulk glycerol currently range from 9,300 to 9,500 RMB/ton—marking a cumulative decline of over 10% since late April—and the market is clearly situated within a downward channel. Taken together, the cost support to epichlorohydrin remains weak, leading to a continued decline in its market price. According to data from SunSirs' market analysis system, as of might 29, the benchmark price to propylene stood at 9,051.00 RMB/ton, representing a 4.67% decrease compared to the beginning of the month (9,494.33 RMB/ton).

Supply Side: The supply landscape to epichlorohydrin generally appears relatively loose. Major scheduled maintenance shutdowns largely concluded by mid-might; as of might 28, the sector's operating rate had risen to 65%–70% (an increase of 10 percentage points compared to early might). to glycerol-based production facilities, narrowing losses—driven by a sharp decline in glycerol prices—have prompted small-to-medium-sized units to restart operations, resulting in a significant increase in overall supply.

Demand Side: Downstream demand remains sluggish, and product shipments to end-consumers are moving slowly, fostering a strong bearish sentiment within the market. Traditional consumption sectors—such as coatings, electronics and electrical equipment, and composite materials—continue to languish. This situation is compounded by the "buy on the rise, hold off on the fall" wait-and-see mentality adopted by end-consumers during this cycle of declining prices, leading to a marked slowdown in market purchasing activity.

Market Outlook

According to analysts at SunSirs, the epichlorohydrin market is currently besieged by a "triple whammy" of negative factors: collapsing raw material prices, contracting demand, and oversupply. In the short term—absent a strong rebound in production costs or clear signals of a recovery in downstream demand—the epichlorohydrin market is likely to maintain its current pattern of weak consolidation. Going forward, market participants should continue to closely monitor raw material price trends as well as shifts in market supply and demand dynamics.

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