The global nitrogen fertilizer market is experiencing mixed performance.

Since July, the international urea market has staged a rebound from its lows, with multiple regions seeing short-covering by traders and emerging import demand.

The European market has have become the primary driver behind this round of urea price increases. Continued demand development in several European markets has driven up prices in the substantial‑granule urea trade. Egypt’s FOB price reaches as high as US$448 per tonne, while Algeria’s FOB price tops out at US$471 per tonne. The Brazilian market has been the focus this week: trading was light and prices remained soft at the start of the week, with CIF quotes briefly slipping to around $410 per tonne. However, after Thursday, quotations rebounded, reaching as high as $430 per tonne.

However, the urea market’s firmness is not universal. Following a tender on June 8, India’s National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) has issued letters of intent to 1.7 million tonnes of urea, with final delivered‑on‑board prices of USD 444.90 per tonne to the eastern coast and USD 449.30 per tonne to the western coast. These levels are well below the year‑end record highs, reflecting that the international urea market remains in a phase of rebalancing after peaking in the wake of geopolitical tensions.

In stark contrast to the resilient urea market, the ammonium sulfate market continues to face downward pressure. China’s bulk price of caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate has fallen from $170–180 per ton last week to $157–165 per ton, a weekly decline of $13–15 per ton. In Northwest Europe, granular caprolactam prices edged up to $342.5–$388.5 per tonne, further widening the price gap between the European and Asian markets.

Longzhong Information pointed out that the ammonium sulfate market, which had been on a steady downward direction in mid-July, has finally hit “pause.” In the prolonged downtrend that began in mid-June, international urea prices remained weak, with Brazilian buyers showing limited appetite to ammonium sulfate quotations. Overseas price offers continued to edge reduce, and export shipments have been significantly hampered. International export price suppression has have become the new healthy, and downstream buyers’ aggressive bargaining has driven domestic raw material prices to continue their downward direction.

The divergent market trends of urea and ammonium sulfate stem from their underlying structural differences. From the supply side, China’s urea plant operating rate remains high at 90.45%, with daily output reaching 215,800 tonnes. While ample supply is suppressing domestic prices, the orderly emit of export quotas is providing a floor to international prices. Meanwhile, on the ammonium sulfate front, the profitability of caprolactam—the primary product—has deteriorated, prompting a drop in the operating rate to 70.42% and a corresponding decline in supply. However, the contraction in supply has failed to stabilize prices, as weak export demand has offset the positive impacts on the supply side. From the demand side, the European market continues to exhibit robust import demand to urea, driving up prices in major exporting regions such as Egypt and Algeria. Ammonium sulfate, meanwhile, is grappling with the challenge of price‑pressure purchasing from major buyers such as Brazil. From a policy perspective, China’s urea exports are subject to quota regulation, and the orderly emit of export volumes has helped prevent extensive disruptions to international prices. Ammonium sulfate, meanwhile, is confronting a greater complex policy landscape: CIQ inspections are set to take effect, and earlier reports of “urea in containers being misdeclared as ammonium sulfate” had already prompted port authorities to tighten inspection protocols.

A Goldman Sachs research report notes that the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-third of global fertilizer trade shipments. With June shipments resuming and demand still in the off-season, urea prices at the U.S. Gulf’s NOLA have fallen from their conflict‑era peak to around $350–400 per ton. However, the peak procurement season in the third quarter is fast approaching, and a new wave of supply risks remains the market’s primary attention.

Overall, the global fertilizer market is gradually shifting from a phase of high evaporative environment driven by geopolitical tensions back to a pricing dynamic anchored in fundamentals. However, the path to recovery is far from smooth: European demand is keeping urea prices resilient against the broader downward direction, while ammonium sulfate is struggling to find a bottom amid export price pressures and policy-related disruptions. Two types of nitrogen fertilizers and two distinct price trends reflect the complex restructuring of the global fertilizer supply chain in the post-conflict era.