(July 6-July 12, 2026) China acetone industry chain market and price trend analysis

1. ABSTRACT DEPTH

in the past week, China's acetone market showed a strong upward trend. Spot prices in East China climbed sharply from 4,700 yuan/ton to 5,280 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 12.04 per cent, leading the rise in commodities over the same period. There are multiple drivers behind this behavior.

From the supply side, China's phenol ketone plant centralized maintenance, the operating rate from 71.64 to 65 - 66%, at a low level in the past year. For example, Changchun Chemical (Jiangsu) 480000 tons/year plant on June 20 to July 31 and other sets of equipment maintenance, July industry estimates of acetone export losses of about 27000 tons, accounting for 14.9 of the total monthly export. Upstream pure benzene prices rebounded strongly, with a weekly increase of 8.12 to 7,320 yuan/ton, increasing production costs. At the same time, after the deep overshoot in June, downstream enterprises concentrated on bottoming out, stimulating market demand. In addition, on July 12, Iran stated that it intends to close the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely, geopolitical risks are heating up, and international oil prices rose more than 3% in early trading on July 13, further strengthening expectations of upward costs.

The market is currently in a long-short game of supply-side contraction, strong cost support and weak downstream demand, and port inventory accumulation. In the short term, the market is strong and volatile, but whether the end demand can substantially recover determines the price upside space.

Analysis of various dimensions of 2. market

(I) market fundamentals

1. spot Price: The large fluctuations in the spot price of acetone in the East China market visually reflect changes in market supply and demand and costs.
2. Unit price of petrochemical plant: July 10 petrochemical plant opening unit price adjustment, is a direct reflection of market price changes, affecting traders and producers cost profits.
3. Supply end: Centralized maintenance of multiple sets of devices has significantly reduced market supply and supported prices.
4. Port Inventory about 6200 tons of acetone were imported in July and about 11000 tons were in transit. Inventory changes affected the balance of supply and demand in the market.

(II) industry chain dynamics

1. upstream raw materials: International oil prices rose sharply due to Iran's geopolitical risks, driving up the price of pure benzene upstream and increasing the cost of acetone production.
2. downstream industry chain: In addition to isopropyl alcohol and MIBK to maintain a small profit, bisphenol A deep loss, MMA product profits fell sharply, downstream enterprises with the use of mining, just need to support the bottom price strength is weak.

(III) public opinion dimension

the mainstream view of the market is that supply contraction drives prices up, but there is a big divergence on market continuity and upside space, and a rebound in downstream demand is a key constraint.

(IV) Core Contradictions and Risks

1. core contradiction: The positive factors are supply contraction and stronger costs, while the negative factors are weak demand and inventory accumulation. The market game is whether the former can continue to hedge the downward pressure brought by the latter.
2. Risk Alert next week, we need to pay attention to Jiangyin port inventory, Wanhua chemical plant maintenance, international oil prices and the situation in the Strait, downstream operating rate, U.S. tariff list and hearing results, these factors may affect the direction of the acetone market.