In-depth analysis of China's bisphenol A market: stop signal is now, where is the rebound momentum?

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After nearly two months of continuous decline, China's bisphenol A market has shown signs of stopping the decline recently, but market sentiment is still cautious.

1. market cycle analysis: from deep correction to bottoming out and stabilizing

after nearly two months of continuous decline, China's bisphenol A market has shown signs of stopping the decline recently, but market sentiment is still cautious. The current round of decline began in late September, when it was the eve of the National Day holiday, downstream customers' willingness to stock up was low, superimposed on concerns about the backlog of inventory during the holiday, and the stock holders accelerated the destocking operation. The spot price in East China fell back to 8200 yuan/ton for the first time.

After the National Day holiday, the simultaneous contraction of both ends of supply and demand weakened the benefits of production cuts. Although Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and other major production areas of multiple sets of equipment into the planned maintenance, but epoxy resin and polycarbonate (PC) downstream equipment maintenance at the same time, the demand side failed to form an effective undertaking. The slow recovery of the post-holiday logistics system led to the passive accumulation of supplier inventory, and the pressure to go to the warehouse was further intensified. At the same time, the prices of pure benzene, phenol and acetone in the upstream continued to weaken, and the cost support line was losing ground. The price of bisphenol A fell below the 7500 yuan/ton mark in October.

Entering November, the imbalance between supply and demand has not seen a substantial improvement. Production companies use low-price shipments as their main strategy, and prices continue to drop to a phased low near 7100 yuan/ton. Until recently, downstream enterprises began to replenish stocks on dips, the market showed marginal demand improvement, and the quotation in East China rebounded to the range of 7200-7300 yuan/ton, marking the end of the current downward cycle.

Key price node tracking:

  • late September (before National Day):8200 yuan/ton
  • mid-to-late October: below 7500 yuan/ton
  • november low: 7100 yuan/ton
  • current price: 7200-7300 yuan/ton (East China)
  • cumulative decline: about 13.4 per cent

2. Stop Logic and Rebound Factors

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