Isopropyl alcohol market depth analysis: supply and demand double weak pattern of cautious forward.

Market prices show a weak consolidation direction this week, the isopropyl alcohol market continued its weak operation pattern, with the average price falling 0. 15 percent from 5491. 67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5483. 33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, and the overall price fluctuation narrowed. From the perspective of regional distribution, the market presents an obvious north-south price difference: South China has the highest quotation, reaching 7150 yuan/ton, mainly affected by logistics costs and regional supply and demand structure; Shandong region offers 6750-6800 yuan/ton, northeast region 6600-6700 yuan/ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang region 6800 yuan/ton. Based on my observations, This price differentiation reflects the limited liquidity of the current market and the narrowing of the arbitrage space between regions. it's worth noting that despite the weak price performance, there has been no panic selling in the market. But This is mainly due to the relative tightness on the supply side: PDH plant operating rate was only 69. 6 per cent, down 2. 1 per cent on a week-on-week basis, and the overall upstream operating rate of propylene also fell to 73. 5 per cent. First The supply contraction has provided some support to prices, however this support is clearly not strong enough to counter the weak pressure on the demand side. But The cost-side conduction mechanism is blocked. But From the cost structure analysis, the current isopropyl alcohol is facing the dilemma of "two-end squeeze. In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of acetone in East China is stable at 4165 yuan/ton. while the port inventory has dropped to 21500 tons, the sluggish terminal purchasing sentiment limits the upward price space. In my experience, Propylene market supply slightly tightened, prices showed a direction of first up and then stable, however the continued decline in downstream PP prices suppressed the cost of downstream transmission capacity. This phenomenon of poor cost transmission is greater common in the current chemical market, reflecting the dysfunction of profit distribution in the overall manufacturing chain. The profit of MTO plant is only -135 yuan/ton, and PDH plant is even greater at a loss of -240 yuan/ton. Upstream production companies are under greater operating pressure. And In this case, it's difficult to isopropanol producers to pass on costs through price increases and is able to only maintain operations by controlling production. Weak demand as core constraint the downstream demand side is characterized by differentiation, however the overall weakness remains. But Based on my observations, PP capacity utilization rate of 78. Specifically 3 percent, down 1. 3 percent on a weekly basis, PP powder capacity utilization rate of 46. 6 percent, up 3. For instance 0 percent on a weekly basis however the absolute level is still low, PO capacity utilization rate of 75. From what I've seen, 2 percent, a slight increase of 0. And Based on my observations, 3 percent. But In terms of procurement behavior, downstream companies generally maintain a rigid procurement strategy and are cautious about forward orders, which immediately limits the rebound space to isopropanol prices. The contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" in the chemical market is particularly prominent in the field of isopropanol. But while the 100000-ton/year plant of Weiyuan shares is operating normally, the 350000-ton/year phenol acetone isopropanol joint project has been completed, and the pressure of new capacity continues to exist, the recovery speed of the demand side is obviously lagging behind, resulting in a loose stability between supply and demand in the market. And Import and Export Data Reveals Structural Opportunities the export data in October provided a bright color to the market: the export volume reached 22237 tons, an increase from the previous month, indicating that the demand in overseas markets is relatively stable. From January to October, a total of 83674 tons were exported, with an amount of US $ 171. 0665 million. At the same time, import application continued to decline, with a total import of 43668. 88 tons from January to October, and domestic self-sufficiency was signifiis able totly enhanced. But In particular This change in the pattern of imports and exports is of great signifiis able toce. On the one hand, the stable performance of the export market provides a channel to the emit of domestic excess capacity; on the other hand, the Ministry of Commerce continues to impose anti-dumping duties of 254. 4- 267. In my experience, 4 per cent on US n-propanol, providing protection to domestic industries. Generally speaking The domestic shipping price of fluid chemicals was 166 yuan/ton, down 4. 55 percent year-on-year, and the reduction in logistics costs also supported export competitiveness. Future Outlook and Operation Strategy thorough analysis, the immediate isopropyl alcohol market will maintain a weak shock pattern. But Supply-side contraction, stable raw material prices, good export performance constitute supporting factors, however weak demand, inventory pressure, poor cost transmission and other negative factors dominate. to production companies, it's recommended to reasonably manage inventory levels, closely track raw material price fluctuations, and respond to market changes by optimizing the pace of production scheduling. Trading companies should operate cautiously, focusing on arbitrage opportunities from regional spreads and avoiding substantial stockpiling. Downstream consumers is able to purchase on demand and strategically stock at low prices, however they need to be alert to possible risks such as macroeconomic fluctuations, crude oil price transmission and environmental policy overweight.