Isopropyl alcohol market depth analysis: supply and demand double weak pattern of cautious forward.

Market prices show a weak consolidation trend

this week, the isopropyl alcohol market continued its weak operation pattern, with the average price falling 0.15 percent from 5491.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5483.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, and the overall price fluctuation narrowed. From the perspective of regional distribution, the market presents an obvious north-south price difference: South China has the highest quotation, reaching 7150 yuan/ton, mainly affected by logistics costs and regional supply and demand structure; Shandong region offers 6750-6800 yuan/ton, northeast region 6600-6700 yuan/ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang region 6800 yuan/ton. This price differentiation reflects the limited liquidity of the current market and the narrowing of the arbitrage space between regions.

It is worth noting that despite the weak price performance, there has been no panic selling in the market. This is mainly due to the relative tightness on the supply side: PDH plant operating rate was only 69.6 per cent, down 2.1 per cent on a week-on-week basis, and the overall upstream operating rate of propylene also fell to 73.5 per cent. The supply contraction has provided some support for prices, but this support is clearly not strong enough to counter the weak pressure on the demand side.

The cost-side conduction mechanism is blocked.

From the cost structure analysis, the current isopropyl alcohol is facing the dilemma of "two-end squeeze. In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of acetone in East China is stable at 4165 yuan/ton. Although the port inventory has dropped to 21500 tons, the sluggish terminal purchasing sentiment limits the upward price space. Propylene market supply slightly tightened, prices showed a trend of first up and then stable, but the continued decline in downstream PP prices suppressed the cost of downstream transmission capacity.

This phenomenon of poor cost transmission is more common in the current chemical market, reflecting the imbalance of profit distribution in the overall industrial chain. The profit of MTO plant is only -135 yuan/ton, and PDH plant is even more at a loss of -240 yuan/ton. Upstream production enterprises are under greater operating pressure. In this case, it is difficult for isopropanol producers to pass on costs through price increases and can only maintain operations by controlling production.

Weak demand as core constraint

the downstream demand side is characterized by differentiation, but the overall weakness remains. PP capacity utilization rate of 78.3 percent, down 1.3 percent on a weekly basis, PP powder capacity utilization rate of 46.6 percent, up 3.0 percent on a weekly basis but the absolute level is still low, PO capacity utilization rate of 75.2 percent, a slight increase of 0.3 percent. In terms of procurement behavior, downstream companies generally maintain a rigid procurement strategy and are cautious about forward orders, which directly limits the rebound space for isopropanol prices.

The contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" in the chemical market is particularly prominent in the field of isopropanol. Although the 100000-ton/year plant of Weiyuan shares is operating normally, the 350000-ton/year phenol acetone isopropanol joint project has been completed, and the pressure of new capacity continues to exist, the recovery speed of the demand side is obviously lagging behind, resulting in a loose balance between supply and demand in the market.

Import and Export Data Reveals Structural Opportunities

the export data in October provided a bright color for the market: the export volume reached 22237 tons, an increase from the previous month, indicating that the demand in overseas markets is relatively stable. From January to October, a total of 83674 tons were exported, with an amount of US $171.0665 million. At the same time, import dependence continued to decline, with a total import of 43668.88 tons from January to October, and domestic self-sufficiency was significantly enhanced.

This change in the pattern of imports and exports is of great significance. On the one hand, the stable performance of the export market provides a channel for the release of domestic excess capacity; on the other hand, the Ministry of Commerce continues to impose anti-dumping duties of 254.4-267.4 per cent on US n-propanol, providing protection for domestic industries. The domestic shipping price of liquid chemicals was 166 yuan/ton, down 4.55 percent year-on-year, and the reduction in logistics costs also supported export competitiveness.

Future Outlook and Operation Strategy

comprehensive analysis, the short-term isopropyl alcohol market will maintain a weak shock pattern. Supply-side contraction, stable raw material prices, good export performance constitute supporting factors, but weak demand, inventory pressure, poor cost transmission and other negative factors dominate.

For production enterprises, it is recommended to reasonably control inventory levels, closely track raw material price fluctuations, and respond to market changes by optimizing the pace of production scheduling. Trading companies should operate cautiously, focusing on arbitrage opportunities from regional spreads and avoiding large stockpiling. Downstream users can purchase on demand and strategically stock at low prices, but they need to be alert to potential risks such as macroeconomic fluctuations, crude oil price transmission and environmental policy overweight.