China Phenol Market Weekly Report (12.8-12.14): Industrial chain pressure transmission under supply and demand imbalance.

Market overview: price pressure, weak shock

December 8-14, 2025, China's phenol market showed a weak shock pattern. The market price in East China dropped from 6163.33 yuan/ton on December 1 to 5780 yuan/ton on December 12, a decrease of 6.22. Although there was a brief rebound during the week (it rose to 5825 yuan/ton on December 8 and hit 5850 yuan/ton on December 9), it quickly fell back due to weak follow-up of downstream demand.

From a global perspective, China, the world's largest consumer of phenol, has an apparent demand of 4.5583 million tonnes in 2023, double the 2.2815 million tonnes in 2018. In 2024, the total global phenol production capacity will reach 17.07 million tons/year, of which 58% (9.82 million tons/year) will be in Northeast Asia and 6.35 million tons/year in China. However, despite the continued expansion of China's production capacity, imports in 2024 will still reach 210000 tons, indicating that domestic high-end products are still dependent on imports, but down sharply from 709900 tons in 2020, and the localization rate has increased significantly.

the core contradiction in the current market is "strong supply and weak demand". On the supply side, the operating rate jumped from 67.3 per cent to 81.0 per cent, with production at a high for the year. On the demand side, the main downstream demand for bisphenol A (40% of phenol consumption) and phenolic resin (25%) is weak, and end-users only maintain just-needed purchases. At the cost end, upstream pure benzene prices remained low due to the contradiction between supply and demand, and the support for phenol weakened. Phenolic ketone plant continued to suffer deep losses, but large integrated enterprises still maintain high load operation by virtue of the advantages of the industrial chain.

Supply and demand pattern: capacity release and weak demand structural imbalance

supply end pressure significantly. The planned overhaul loss in December is about 30000 tons, while in January it is only 10000 tons. The overhaul impact is limited. Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical's 250000-ton/year phenol ketone plant is operating normally, lowering the price of phenol by 100 yuan/ton to 6200 yuan/ton. Port inventories continue to accumulate, and ITC futures data show that phenol inventories at Jiangyin Port continue to grow, despite a short-term decline of 8-10% at the beginning of the week due to no ships arriving at the port, but overall inventory pressure is still there.

The demand side of the

continues to be depressed. Bisphenol A is the most important downstream of phenol, mainly used in the production of polycarbonate (PC) and epoxy resin. Cangzhou Dahua said that its 50000-ton PC technological transformation project has produced qualified products, but bisphenol A is facing market pressure, reflecting the sluggish demand in the PC industry chain. Phenolic resin industry terminal procurement cautious, only just need small single replenishment mainly. From a broader perspective of terminal consumption, although hard rubber products such as household appliances entered the end of the year procurement season, the high inventory of styrene downstream PS, ABS and EPS (collectively referred to as 3S) inhibited the enthusiasm of raw material procurement.

industry chain profits across the line under pressure. Phenol ketone plant continued to suffer deep losses, although the price of pure benzene and propylene dual raw materials is weak (futures prices fell more than 1%), but the price of phenol is also low, the spread is difficult to expand. ITC futures data show that PC gross margin and epoxy resin production gross margin are at a low level. The profit of styrene non-integrated plant was compressed from around 154 yuan/ton on December 9 to around 64 yuan/ton on December 10, reflecting the weak demand and narrow profit margin of the entire aromatics industry chain.

International Market and Trade Dynamics

From the perspective of global trade flow, China's phenol imports mainly come from South Korea, Japan, Thailand and other Asian countries. China imported 210000 tons of phenol in 2024, down 43% year-on-year, and import dependence fell from about 24% in 2020 to about 3% in 2024, with a significant domestic substitution effect. In terms of exports, China's phenol exports in 2024 were about 76000 tons, up 165.73 percent year-on-year, mainly to the Southeast Asian market, with high-purity phenol (purity ≥ 99.95 percent) as the main export varieties.

the current pressure on the outer disk of pure benzene is too large, South Korea's pure benzene in November-December throwing pressure is still large, import cost support weakened. The supply of aromatics in Northeast Asia is relatively loose, and the price of phenol in the international market lacks the driving force. Increased uncertainty in the global trade environment, U.S. tariff policies pushing up import costs, and Mexico's tariff bill raising trade friction concerns could affect cross-border chemical flows and cost transmission.

China to expand zero-tariff treatment to all least developed countries with diplomatic relations, although it does not directly involve phenol, it reflects the policy of expanding opening up. China and Latin American and Caribbean countries are exploring the establishment of long-term and stable trade relations, which will help expand market space in the long run.