MMA market stabilization signal appears: cost and demand game under the shock pattern analysis.

1. market prices and core contradictions

prices stabilize and regional differentiation is emerging.

On November 27, 2025, the MMA market showed clear signs of stabilization after a sustained decline in the previous period. The mainstream transaction price in East China remained at 12,500-12,800 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. South China quoted 12,700-13,000 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton in some areas. The formation of this stabilizing trend stems from the dual role of enhanced cost support and marginal improvement in the supply and demand pattern, and the market's bearish sentiment has weakened significantly.

Core contradiction: cost push up to meet demand ceiling

the core contradiction of the current market lies in the game between "cost support enhancement and slow demand recovery. On the one hand, the rise in energy prices such as coal and natural gas has boosted cost-side support, with the price of acetone, the main raw material, remaining in the range of 5,800-6,000 yuan/tonne; on the other hand, the slow recovery of downstream demand, especially in the construction sector, has constrained the upward price space. This contradiction leads to the market showing a shock pattern of "top and bottom", and the probability of breakthrough market in the short term is low.

Deep analysis of 2. supply and demand fundamentals

cost side: raw material supply and demand reversal to strengthen support

there was a key turning point in the methanol market. In the week of November 20, the total weekly supply of domestic methanol was 2.303 million tons, and the total demand was 2.3779 million tons. The supply and demand situation was reversed, and the demand gap reached 74900 tons/week. Strong coal prices and rising natural gas prices have put cost pressure on both coal and natural gas methanol, indirectly supporting MMA production costs. The spread between MMA and raw material acetone is maintained in the range of RMB 6,500-7,000/tonne, and the production profit is at a reasonable level.

Supply side: stable operating rate, slowing capacity expansion

the overall operating rate of the industry remained at about 68%, and some units maintained low-load operation due to efficiency considerations. After late November, the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to increase as the domestic maintenance enterprise installations are gradually restored. It is worth noting that limited new capacity is expected to be added in 2025, no significant new capacity will be added in the near future, and the industry's focus will shift to the operational efficiency and cost control of existing installations. This slowdown in capacity expansion will help ease the industry's long-term overcapacity pressure.

Demand side: significant structural differentiation

the operating rate of the downstream PMMA industry remained at about 75%, but the demand showed obvious structural differentiation. The demand for building-grade PMMA is still weak due to the influence of the real estate industry, which has become the main factor restricting the overall market demand. The demand for optical PMMA is relatively stable supported by the consumer electronics industry. The demand in the field of plastic modification remains stable, and the trend of automobile lightweight forms long-term support for the demand for high-end MMA. In the coating industry, the demand for traditional solvent-based coatings is shrinking, but the demand for MMA for water-based coatings is growing steadily. Overall, there is a lack of strong pull on the demand side, but rigid demand remains.

Inventory management: overall controllable, port slightly cumulative

the inventory of major production enterprises remained at a reasonable level of 10-15 days, and the total social inventory was relatively stable. In terms of port inventory, affected by the high import volume, the port inventory in East China has accumulated slightly, but the overall controllable, and the inventory turnover days remain in the normal range of 20-25 days. This inventory structure shows that although the market supply and demand fundamentals are weak, there has not yet been a serious imbalance.

Analysis on Profit and Price Difference of 3. Industry Chain

the overall balance of profit distribution in the industrial chain is not significantly distorted. The price difference between downstream PMMA products and MMA remains at 8,000-10,000 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of processing enterprises is relatively stable. This relatively balanced profit distribution pattern helps to maintain the stable operation of the industrial chain, but it also means that there is no obvious driving force in each link to drive price fluctuations.

4. Industry Dynamics and Technology Progress

technological breakthrough china Petroleum and Chemical Co., Ltd. has obtained the patent of "methacrolein oxidation method and oxidation catalyst and its preparation method and application" (authorized announcement number CN119259088B), which is expected to improve the efficiency of MMA production process and help reduce production costs in the long run.

Enterprise dynamics wanhua Chemical (SH:600309) shares rose 2.06 on November 27, with a turnover of 0.741 billion yuan, indicating that the market's confidence in leading chemical enterprises has recovered.

industry integration south Korea's Lotte Chemical and HD Modern Chemical submitted an application for petrochemical business integration plan to the government, involving an ethylene production capacity of 1.95 million tons/year, which may affect the supply of acrylonitrile and other raw materials in Asia and deserves continuous attention.

5. Regional Markets and International Dynamics

regional Market Forecast

east China Region: As a major consumer region, in the short term in the 12,500-13,000 yuan/ton range volatility, supply and demand fundamentals are relatively balanced. south china region: Affected by the import supply, the price fluctuation is relatively obvious, is expected to run in the range of 12,700-13,200 yuan/ton. north china region: Local demand support is limited, prices follow the trend of the East China market, and the spread remains at 100-200 yuan/ton.

International Market Dynamics

the MMA market in Asia is generally stable, with Southeast Asia offering US $1,550-1,600/ton CFR China Main Port. The European market is affected by high energy costs, with local producers offering between € 1,800 and € 1,850 per tonne. Supply and demand in the U.S. market are relatively balanced, with prices ranging from $1,650 to $1,700/tonne FOB U.S. Gulf. In terms of import and export, China's methanol import and unloading volume reached 1.65 million tons in October, and the import volume remained high in November, which may have an indirect impact on the domestic chemical product market.

6. Risk Alert and Market Outlook

four major risks to watch out

1. risk of raw material price fluctuation: The price fluctuation of acetone, methanol and other raw materials will directly affect the production cost of MMA.
2. Import shock risk new production capacity in Southeast Asia may have an impact on the domestic market
3. environmental Policy Risk: Winter environmental restrictions may affect downstream demand.
4. Macroeconomic risk: Continued downturn in the real estate sector could further depress demand for building-grade PMMA

after the market outlook

in the short term, the MMA market will continue to maintain a volatile pattern, and the contradiction between cost support and weak demand will continue. It is recommended that market participants pay attention to the price trend of raw materials, the recovery of downstream demand and the dynamics of import sources. In the medium and long term, as the effect of policy adjustment in the real estate industry gradually appears and the trend of automobile lightweight continues to advance, the MMA market is expected to usher in marginal improvement on the demand side, but this process may be relatively slow.