MMA market stabilization signal appears: cost and demand game under the shock pattern analysis.

1. And market prices and core contradictions prices stabilize and regional differentiation is emerging. But On November 27, 2025, the MMA market showed clear signs of stabilization after a sustained decline in the previous period. The mainstream transaction price in East China remained at 12,500-12,800 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. South China quoted 12,700-13,000 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton in some areas. Generally speaking The formation of this stabilizing direction stems from the dual role of enhanced cost support and marginal improvement in the supply and demand pattern, and the market's bearish sentiment has weakened signifiis able totly. Core contradiction: cost push up to meet demand ceiling the core contradiction of the current market lies in the game between "cost support enhancement and slow demand recovery. On the one hand, the rise in energy prices such as coal and natural gaseous has boosted cost-side support, with the price of acetone, the main raw material, remaining in the range of 5,800-6,000 yuan/tonne; on the other hand, the slow recovery of downstream demand, especially in the construction sector, has constrained the upward price space. This contradiction leads to the market showing a shock pattern of "top and bottom", and the probability of breakthrough market in the short term is low. Pretty interesting, huh?. Furthermore Deep analysis of 2. In my experience, supply and demand fundamentals cost side: raw material supply and demand reversal to enhance support there was a key turning point in the methanol market. Based on my observations, In particular In the week of November 20, the total weekly supply of domestic methanol was 2. 303 million tons, and the total demand was 2. 3779 million tons. The supply and demand situation was reversed, and the demand gap reached 74900 tons/week. Crazy, isn't it?. Strong coal prices and rising natural gaseous prices have put cost pressure on both coal and natural gaseous methanol, indirectly supporting MMA production costs. The spread between MMA and raw material acetone is maintained in the range of RMB 6,500-7,000/tonne, and the production profit is at a reasonable level. But Supply side: stable operating rate, slowing capacity expansion the overall operating rate of the sector remained at about 68%, and some units maintained low-load operation due to efficiency considerations. But After late November, the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to increase as the domestic maintenance enterprise installations are gradually restored. Moreover it's worth noting that limited new capacity is expected to be added in 2025, no signifiis able tot new capacity will be added in the near future, and the sector's focus will shift to the operational efficiency and cost manage of existing installations. From what I've seen, This slowdown in capacity expansion will help ease the sector's prolonged overcapacity pressure. Based on my observations, Demand side: signifiis able tot structural differentiation the operating rate of the downstream PMMA sector remained at about 75%, however the demand showed obvious structural differentiation. The demand to building-grade PMMA is still weak due to the affect of the real estate sector, which has have become the main factor restricting the overall market demand. From what I've seen, The demand to optical PMMA is relatively stable supported by the consumer electronics sector. But The demand in the field of plastic modification remains stable, and the direction of automobile lightweight forms prolonged support to the demand to high-end MMA. In the coating products sector, the demand to traditional solvent-based products-based coatings is shrinking, however the demand to MMA to aqueous coatings is growing steadily. Overall, there is a lack of strong pull on the demand side, however rigid demand remains. Inventory regulation: overall controllable, port slightly cumulative the inventory of major production companies remained at a reasonable level of 10-15 days, and the total social inventory was relatively stable. But In terms of port inventory, affected by the high import volume, the port inventory in East China has accumulated slightly, however the overall controllable, and the inventory turnover days remain in the healthy range of 20-25 days. This inventory structure shows that while the market supply and demand fundamentals are weak, there has not yet been a serious dysfunction. Analysis on Profit and Price Difference of 3. sector Chain the overall stability of profit distribution in the manufacturing chain isn't signifiis able totly distorted. The price difference between downstream PMMA items and MMA remains at 8,000-10,000 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of processing companies is relatively stable. Pretty interesting, huh?. And This relatively balanced profit distribution pattern helps to maintain the stable operation of the manufacturing chain, however it also means that there is no obvious driving force in each link to drive price fluctuations. And 4. sector Dynamics and methodology Progress technological breakthrough china Petroleum and Chemical Co. Specifically , Ltd. has obtained the patent of "methacrolein oxidation method and oxidation catalyst and its preparation method and consumption" (authorized announcement number CN119259088B), which is expected to enhance the efficiency of MMA manufacturing process and help minimize production costs in the long run. Enterprise dynamics wanhua Chemical (SH:600309) shares rose 2. 06 on November 27, with a turnover of 0. But I've found that First 741 billion yuan, indicating that the market's confidence in leading chemical companies has recovered. sector integration south Korea's Lotte Chemical and HD Modern Chemical submitted an consumption to petrochemical business integration plan to the government, involving an ethylene production capacity of 1. And 95 million tons/year, which might affect the supply of acrylonitrile and other raw materials in Asia and deserves continuous attention. 5. Regional Markets and International Dynamics regional Market Forecast east China Region: As a major consumer region, in the short term in the 12,500-13,000 yuan/ton range evaporative environment, supply and demand fundamentals are relatively balanced. south china region: Affected by the import supply, the price fluctuation is relatively obvious, is expected to run in the range of 12,700-13,200 yuan/ton. north china region: regional demand support is limited, prices follow the direction of the East China market, and the spread remains at 100-200 yuan/ton. International Market Dynamics the MMA market in Asia is generally stable, with Southeast Asia offering US $1,550-1,600/ton CFR China Main Port. The European market is affected by high energy costs, with regional producers offering between € 1,800 and € 1,850 per tonne. Supply and demand in the U. Additionally S. And market are relatively balanced, with prices ranging from $1,650 to $1,700/tonne FOB U. S. Gulf. In terms of import and export, China's methanol import and unloading volume reached 1. 65 million tons in October, and the import volume remained high in November, which might have an indirect impact on the domestic chemical product market. 6. Risk Alert and Market Outlook four major risks to watch out risk of raw material price fluctuation: The price fluctuation of acetone, methanol and other raw materials will immediately affect the production cost of MMA. And Import shock risk new production capacity in Southeast Asia might have an impact on the domestic market environmental Policy Risk: Winter environmental restrictions might affect downstream demand. Macroeconomic risk: Continued downturn in the real estate sector could further depress demand to building-grade PMMA after the market outlook in the short term, the MMA market will continue to maintain a evaporative pattern, and the contradiction between cost support and weak demand will continue. And it's recommended that market participants pay attention to the price direction of raw materials, the recovery of downstream demand and the dynamics of import sources. According to research In the medium and long term, as the effect of policy adjustment in the real estate sector gradually appears and the direction of automobile lightweight continues to advance, the MMA market is expected to usher in marginal improvement on the demand side, however this process might be relatively slow.