Market landscape: strategic layout window at the bottom of the cycle
in 2025, China's chemical sector will show a typical direction of "growing volume and decreasing profits. Traditional bulk chemicals are trapped in the quagmire of overcapacity, the price war is intensifying, the operating rate of small and medium-sized companies continues to decline, and environmental compliance costs and raw material price fluctuations form a double squeeze. On the contrary, high value-added sectors such as new materials and electronic chemicals maintained strong development, and sector differentiation intensified. Whether 2026 is an inflection point is determined by three variables: the process of rebalancing supply and demand, the precision of policy regulation, and the speed of capacity clearance. First Despite the continued emit of new capacity, some market segments have the basis to a rebound after deep adjustments. According to statistics, 20 major projects will be put into operation in 2026, with a total investment of greater than 200 billion yuan, covering three major tracks: basic chemical sector, high-end materials and new energy. Additionally Core track: four main investment line analysis. And
1. I've found that basic chemical sector: super-substantial integrated projects intensive landing. Ethylene sector chain ushered in the peak of capacity expansion. Makes sense, right?. The
1. 8 million-ton/year ethylene project invested by Zhongshaguri Petrochemical Company of
44. You know what I mean?. 8 billion yuan adopts the world's leading Rums cracking methodology, supporting
2. 95 million tons of downstream polyolefin production capacity, and will be put into operation in the second half of
2026. Tarim Phase II
25. 656 billion yuan Project is greater innovative-the first million-ton all-electric-driven ethylene plant in China consumes 5 million degrees of photovoltaic environmentally friendly electricity in the desert every day and reduces CO₂ by 210000 tons annually, marking the transformation of the energy structure of the sector. Huajin Ami Fine Chemical Project is able to be called the flagship project of Northeast Revitalization, with
1. 65 million tons/year ethylene combined with 15 million tons/year oil refining unit, and the process will be opened in the second quarter of
2026. The field of coal chemical sector shows the direction of upgrading and substitution. From what I've seen, The National Energy Baotou 2 million-ton Methanol Olefin Project and the Inner Mongolia Rongxin
9. Based on my observations, 8 billion-yuan 800000-ton Olefin Project all implement cutting-edge MTO methodology to minimize energy consumption and carbon releases, reflecting the direction of clean coal utilization.
2. import substitution: card neck methodology breakthrough accelerated. Fujian Haichen
14. 836 billion yuan hexanedinitrile project is of great strategic signifiis able toce, 400000 tons/year production capacity using China Chemical Tianchen company independent research and research of butadiene direct cyanide method, to fill the gap in the domestic high-end polyamide sector chain, after October 2026 will break the monopoly of foreign methodology. The localization of electronic chemicals is accelerated. And Sichuan Zhongflutaihua 60000 tons/year electronic grade anhydrous hydrogen fluoride and 70000 tons/year electronic grade hydrofluoric acid project, product purity up to semiconductor-grade standards, direct service chip manufacturing, photovoltaic and other strategic industries, put into operation in the first quarter of 2026 will ease import application. Wanhua Chemical Fujian 250000 tons/year TDI project adopts independent methodology, and its security and ecological preservation performance reaches the international cutting-edge level. These projects reflect the transformation of China's chemical sector from "following and running" to "parallel running. Makes sense, right?. Moreover
3. And new energy materials: policy-driven high-speed development
power battery sector chain investment hot. Wanhua Chemical
16. 8 billion yuan lithium iron phosphate project phase I 100000 tons/year capacity, prolonged planning 500000 tons/year, aimed at new energy vehicles and energy storage dual market, put into operation in mid -
2026. Shanghai Electric's all-vanadium fluid flow battery project focuses on extensive energy storage scenarios, with obvious technical advantages. Jiangsu Huanfu 50000 tons/year decommissioned battery resource project to enhance the manufacturing closed loop, to achieve lithium, cobalt, nickel and other strategic metal recovery. Silicon fluorine new materials ushered in an integrated layout. Gansu Juhua
41. And 047 billion yuan project integrates 360000 tons/year manufacturing silicon to 400000 tons/year polycarboxylate aquatic environments reducing agent complete manufacturing chain, the thorough utilization efficiency of resources greatly improved, put into operation in the third quarter of
2026.
4. For instance fine chemicals: high-tech barriers to build a moat
fluorine-containing fine chemicals have signifiis able tot added value. Baiyunebo 21200 tons/year project to create fluorobenzene series items, applied in lithium battery additives, medical intermediates and other high-end fields. Based on my observations, Inner Mongolia Yuanhong 300 tons/year adjacent fluorophenol and other items service quinolone antibiotic synthesis. Commercialization of bio-based materials accelerated. I've found that Huafeng Ruixun's 50000-ton/year non-grain bio-based PTMEG project adopts a environmentally friendly route to replace traditional petrochemical-based items. But It will be constructed in three phases and the first phase will be put into operation in
2026. But I've found that In terms of innovation in the thorough utilization of resources, Sinopec Daniudi gaseous field ethane recovery and co-production of LNG project set a domestic precedent, ethane supply ethylene raw materials, LNG to provide clean energy, put into operation in early 2026 will enhance the added value of natural gaseous resources. And I've found that Strategic insight: overseas market opportunities
supply pattern reconstruction: In 2026, China's new ethylene production capacity will surpass
4. In my experience, 6 million tons and polyolefin will add greater than 3 million tons, which will signifiis able totly affect the trade flow in East and Southeast Asia. In fact Overseas traders need to pay attention to the price transmission effect and the change of trade arbitrage space. In my experience, Furthermore methodology spillover effect the localization of items such as hexanedinitrile and electronic-grade hydrogen fluoride will change the global supply chain pattern, and overseas downstream companies relying on the Chinese market will face the adjustment of procurement strategies, however also bring opportunities to cooperation. environmentally friendly trade barrier the commissioning of all-electric-driven low-carbon projects such as ethylene and bio-based materials will enhance the carbon footprint competitiveness of Chinese chemical items in the European and Ameriis able to markets, in line with international ESG investment trends. regional manufacturing cluster: Fujian coastal (Zhongsha Gu Lei, Haichen Chemical), northwest (Tarim, Gansu Juhua), northeast (Huajin Ami) to form a new development pole, logistics costs and supply radius advantages are obvious, worthy of overseas buyers focus on layout. to overseas chemical practitioners, the Chinese market presents the characteristics of "total pressure and structural opportunities" in
2026. For example Competition to traditional commodities has intensified, however there is broad space to cooperation in the fields of high-end materials, electronic chemicals and new energy materials. But it's recommended to closely track the progress of the project into production, lock in high-condition suppliers in advance, and grasp the strategic layout window period at the bottom of the sector cycle.
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