Spring overhaul tide in China's chemical industry in 2026: an in-depth analysis of supply shocks and price opportunities

Maintenance Cycle Law and Market Characteristics in 2026

there is a clear seasonal overhaul rule in China's chemical industry, with two centralized overhaul windows in March-May and September-November each year. Supply-side contraction during overhauls is often a key driver of price volatility. The maintenance season in the first half of 2026 is about to start. Judging from the plans announced so far, there are three major characteristics: first, there are a large number of maintenance enterprises, involving more than 10 large enterprises such as Tianci Materials, Zhejiang Petrochemical and CNOOC Huizhou; second, the maintenance period is highly concentrated in April-May, with significant supply gap superposition effect; third, the maintenance capacity of core varieties such as PX, styrene and ethylene glycol is large and the market price sensitivity is high.

According to the disclosed information, in April-May, the overhaul capacity of PX exceeded 9 million tons, styrene exceeded 1.6 million tons, and ethylene glycol exceeded 1 million tons. Although the impact of a single overhaul project is limited, multi-device centralized parking will lead to regional supply constraints, providing fundamental support for price upside.

Core Varieties Maintenance Plan and Market Impact Assessment

PX (p-xylene): the variety with the biggest supply impact

in March, Zhejiang Petrochemical's two units (capacity 2 million tons +2.5 million tons) are planned to be overhauled for 35-45 days and are expected to resume in mid-to-late April or May. CNOOC Huizhou 1.5 million-ton plant will be inspected and repaired for about 50 days from March to mid-May. Qingdao Lidong 1 million-ton plant will be overhauled from the end of March to the beginning of May. Jinling Petrochemical's 600000-ton plant will be overhauled for 56 days from March 6 to April 30. It is worth noting that Zhejiang Petrochemical and CNOOC Huizhou have overlapping maintenance time, with a combined production capacity of 400-5.5 million tons, accounting for about 10-12% of China's total PX production capacity. The superposition effect will have a significant impact on the market price of PX and downstream PTA.

In April, the 600000-ton units of Yangzi Petrochemical Company, 390000-ton units of Tianjin Petrochemical Company and 660000-ton units of Hainan Refining and Chemical Company were overhauled one after another. Although Hainan refining is a minor repair, it has a significant impact on the supply of PX in southern China. Overall, the March-May TX maintenance capacity of more than 9 million tons, high concentration, large scale, is expected to promote the PX price phase of the strengthening, and then transmitted to the PTA-polyester industry chain.

Styrene: East China market faces supply gap

zhejiang Zhenli 620000-ton plant began to be overhauled for 22 days on April 20. Although it is a defect elimination overhaul, it is large in scale. Tianjin Bohai Chemical 450000 Ton Plant will be repaired from April to the end of May. Extension of Refining and Chemical 120000 Ton Plant Maintenance for 45 Days in April; Zibo Junchen 500000 Ton Plant Maintenance in May (Catalyst Replacement); Jiangsu Hongwei Plant Overhaul Lasts for Two Months from May to June.

East China is the main consumer market for styrene in China, and the maintenance of Zhejiang Zhenli and Jiangsu Hongwei will directly affect the regional supply balance. Styrene inventory cycle is usually short (2-3 weeks), the supply gap caused by maintenance is difficult to quickly fill through imports, it is expected that the spot price of benzene in East China will be a phased premium.

Ethylene Glycol: Taiwan South Asia Overhaul Affects Cross-Strait Market

taiwan, China, South Asia 1# and 2#MEG units (with a total capacity of 720000 tons) are scheduled to be repaired for 30 days in May, which will have a short-term impact on ethylene glycol supply in East and South China. Yanshan Petrochemical and Fushun Petrochemical will be overhauled simultaneously in May. Although the specific production capacity has not been disclosed, as important suppliers in North China, regional supply will tighten during the overhaul.

The ethylene glycol market is characterized by high import dependence (about 50%), the impact of domestic maintenance is relatively controllable, but Taiwan South Asia as an important exporter, its maintenance will reduce the supply to the mainland market, superimposed on the domestic device parking, it is expected that there is an upward momentum in the price of ethylene glycol in May.

Other key varieties

tianci materials Longshan North Base lithium hexafluorophosphate production line (150000 tons of liquid and 50000 tons of solid production capacity) March 1-20 maintenance, for the annual routine maintenance. Zhongan joint PE device in March repair, production capacity is not large on the market impact is limited. The long-term overhaul of Zhongyuan Petrochemical's ethylene plant starting in October 2025 is expected to end at the end of May, involving 280000 tons of ethylene. The recovery in June will ease the supply pressure of ethylene and polyethylene in North China.

CNOOC Zhoushan Petrochemical in April joint overhaul involving heavy oil cracking, aromatic extraction, continuous reforming and other sets of equipment, for the Daxie-Zhoushan joint overhaul, the Yangtze River Delta region multi-species supply has a comprehensive impact, the probability of higher prices.

Trade Strategy Advice

faced with the trend of centralized maintenance, traders and supply chain practitioners are advised to adopt the following strategies: lock in the supply of PX and styrene in March-April in advance, and use the supply gap during the maintenance period to carry out arbitrage operations; Pay attention to the maintenance progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical and CNOOC Huizhou. If the actual parking time is extended, the supply shortage will be aggravated. Closely follow the price signal of the spot market in East China, and adjust the purchasing rhythm when the premium of PX and styrene area. For downstream polyester and plastic processing enterprises, A modest increase in April-May raw material inventories is recommended to address the risk of price increases.

Although the impact of a single overhaul project is manageable, the supply shortage created by the centralized parking of multiple units will remain the core driver of the rise in chemical prices in the second quarter of 2026.