Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (EMR) has officially finalized the price of Indonesia's crude oil (ICP) for February 2026, set at $68.79 per barrel. Compared with the price of US $64.41 per barrel in January, the month-on-month increase was US $4.38, a significant increase, reflecting the continued heating up of the global crude oil market.
It is reported that this crude oil pricing has been officially enshrined in Decree No. 115.K/ MG.03/MEM of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, which has legal effect and will serve as the core reference basis for Indonesia's crude oil trade and settlement.
Indonesia's Director General of Oil and Gas (Migas) Lauder Suleiman (Laode Suleiman) explained in detail the core reasons for the increase in ICP prices in a written statement on March 3 (Wednesday), pointing out that the price increase is the result of multiple factors in the global oil market, among which geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are one of the key drivers.
"The rise in ICP prices in February 2026 stems from multiple variables in the global oil market, including the continued escalation of geopolitical risks, which can easily disrupt the global oil supply order." Lauder Suleiman said that the current tensions in the Middle East have triggered a series of policy responses and strategic regional military operations, including military exercises in the waters of the Middle East. These activities may have a potential impact on global energy transportation routes, thereby pushing up Market risk aversion.
In addition to the situation in the Middle East, the attacks on a number of energy facilities in Russia have further aggravated the market's concern about the interruption of global oil supply and become another important factor driving up oil prices. Lauder Suleiman added that in addition to geopolitics, changes in global oil supply fundamentals have also had a significant impact on oil price trends.
"The latest report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that global oil production declined in early 2026, especially in OPEC + countries, a trend that directly leads to a tightening of the global oil supply balance and provides support for rising oil prices." He explained further.
In addition, the continued decline in U.S. petroleum product inventories has also been an important driver of rising oil prices. Lauder Suleiman pointed out that behind the decline in inventories is a direct manifestation of the increase in global energy consumption and the recovery of economic activity, which has further driven up demand for crude oil and pushed prices higher. According to EIA data, U.S. oil inventories fell sharply by 2.1 percent in February 2026, confirming this trend.
In the Asia-Pacific region, regional market dynamics have also had an impact on oil price volatility. Lauder Suleiman mentioned that the warming of Singapore's oil processing activities is particularly obvious. As of the end of February 2026, Singapore's crude oil throughput increased by 1% compared with January, reaching 89% of its total production capacity of 1.12 million barrels per day. The increase in regional processing demand has further tightened the balance of crude oil supply and demand in the Asia-Pacific region.
At the same time, the increase in China's strategic oil reserves has also had an impact on the global crude oil market. It is reported that China has recently increased its strategic oil reserves by 1 million barrels, further tightening the fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand, and indirectly promoting the rise of international oil prices and ICP prices. It is worth noting that China's current strategic oil reserves have reached 1.1 billion to 1.4 billion barrels, with strong market regulation capabilities.
In terms of global major crude oil price trends, February 2026 all showed a month-on-month upward trend, in line with ICP price trends, as follows:
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indonesian crude oil (ICP): from US $64.41 to US $68.79 per barrel, up US $4.38 month on month;
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brent crude oil (ICE): up $4.64 from $64.73 to $69.37 a barrel;
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WTI crude oil (Nymex): up $4.26 from $60.26 to $64.52 a barrel;
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dated Brent: from $66.80 to $71.15 per barrel, up $4.35 month-on-month;
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OPEC basket price: from $62.31 per barrel on January 30, 2026 to $67.79 per barrel on February 26, up $5.48 month on month.
According to analysis by industry insiders, the sharp increase in ICP prices not only reflects changes in supply and demand in the global crude oil market, but is also closely related to emergencies such as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on Russian energy facilities. It is expected that global crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Upward trend, Indonesian ICP prices will also be affected.
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