Half-year increase of more than 20% across the line: polyurethane industry chain "cost-driven inflation" of the four driving forces and after-market research.

a rare "cost-push inflation" is sweeping the global polyurethane industry chain. Polymeric MDI vs. Pure MDI november 2025 cumulative increase of approx.40% , still in the upward channel; CASE polyether rose the most.30% polyester polyols, spandex, cyclopentane foaming agent, POP polyether cumulative increase exceeded.26% ; TDI, soft foam polyether, TPU and soft foam silicone oil, catalyst, CPU, polyurethane resin and other varieties rose more than half a year.20% **. The whole category of collective upward, the industrial chain upstream and downstream almost no spared.

The four driving forces of 1. dismantling: cost, supply, demand, oligopoly price increase resonance.

Cost end: oil price plus 40%, European natural gas 3 to 4 times, cost conduction chain full line compaction. International oil prices have risen in the past six months. 40% it conducts step by step along the path of "crude oil & rarr; naphtha & rarr; propylene & rarr; propylene oxide & rarr; aniline & rarr;MDI/TDI & rarr; polyether/polyester polyol. European gas prices have doubled over the same period. 3 to 4 times A large number of European installations are in deep losses and are forced to operate at low load, and the giants are then levying natural gas surcharges. European price increases have a significant linkage effect on the Chinese market.

Supply side: the global 1.9 million tons of capacity synchronous maintenance, the historical supply gap concentrated outbreak. This is the most direct trigger for this round of price increases. MDI end: Wanhua Ningbo 1 million tons BASF Belgium 650000 tons(December 2025 to March 2026), Huntsman Netherlands plant emergency shutdown 28 days saudi plant overhauled in early 2026 1 month covestro Shanghai and Chongqing simultaneous maintenance-- from January to March 2026, the global MDI synchronous maintenance scale exceeds 1.9 million tons. according to calculations, there is a MDI supply gap of 650000 tons and 1.07 million tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively.. TDI and PO chain also suffered from centralized maintenance impact; 400000 tons/year temporary shutdown of the installation in January, Kumho, South Korea 410000 tons/year the installation was repaired in February for about a month, and the supply in Asia contracted simultaneously. Global approx. 1.94 million tons MDI capacity is running at low load.

Demand side: marginal recovery but slow pace, playing the role of "bottom" rather than "main attack. The continuation of China's home appliance subsidy policy, the recovery of demand for building insulation driven by improved housing, and the growth of home appliance furniture exports after the reduction of U.S. tariffs have all supported polyurethane consumption. China's MDI consumption will reach 3.8244 million tons in 2025, with a CAGR of 10.9 per cent from 2019 to 2025., but the slow pace of overall consumption recovery is not the core driver of this round of price increases.

Oligarch active price: Wanhua led, global linkage price increase. The top five global MDI companies together account for approximately 90% market share, Wanhua Chemical to 3.8 million tons/year capacity ranks first in the world, TDI market share is also close. 40%. Wanhua Self november 2025 launch a global continuous price increase offensive: MDI in Southeast Asia and South Asia will be raised on December 1 $200/ton upgraded for Middle East, Africa and Turkey on December 8 $350/ton on December 15, the price increase expanded to Latin America, MDI and TDI were raised respectively. $200/ton. Covestro's cumulative increase in North American MDI 1500 yuan BASF, Dow, Huntsman have followed up, the price effect extends to catalysts, additives, foaming agents, silicone oil and other supporting products of the whole industry chain.

2. after the market research and operation advice: follow the market, beware of high risk.

Short-term: high volatility is difficult to break, the only mitigation variable is Wanhua Fujian new production capacity. Wanhua Fujian MDI is expected. Second Quarter put into production, in the original 800000 tons/year added on 700000 tons/year at that time, Wanhua's total global MDI production capacity will reach 4.5 million tons/year, can alleviate the gap slightly, but the overall impact is limited.

Medium-and long-term: price bottoms are systematically elevated, with industry pivots higher than in the past two years. If the geopolitical conflict eases, oil prices fall back, polyurethane prices or gradual correction, but the global MDI, TDI supply and demand gap is still large, overseas high-cost capacity continues to exit, the price center will be systematically higher than the previous period.

Core advice for overseas traders: close tracking of Wanhua Fujian production rhythm and the Middle East geographical direction of the two major signals; short-term to follow the market-oriented, strict control of high inventory, to avoid the passive risk of a price correction.