Phenol Market Weekly | Week 14 of 2026 (March 28-April 3)

1. price quotes and core drivers

last week, the domestic phenol market continued to be strong, with the national mainstream average price rising from 9106 yuan/ton to 9693 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 6.5 percent. On April 3, mainstream manufacturers such as Gaohua Materials, Zhongsha Tianjin Petrochemical, Bluestar Harbin Petrochemical and Longjiang Chemical collectively raised their ex-factory prices by 200 yuan/ton, with the implementation prices of 9600 yuan, 9700 yuan, 10300 yuan and 9900 yuan/ton respectively, pushing the mainstream spot range 9600-10300 yuan/ton.

This round of rise is a typical "cost-driven": the average price of pure benzene, the core raw material, in March in East China was 8111 yuan/ton, up 33.26 percent from the previous month; During the week, the spot price fluctuated at a high level of 8270-9030 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil once exceeded $110/barrel, the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the Strait of Hormuz logistics bottleneck short-term difficult to solve, the bottom of the cost is very solid.

Supply-side operating rate maintained 86-87.4%, but the plant inventory is generally low, contract orders priority, spot sales are limited, the market circulation supply tight pattern continues.

The contradiction between the profit structure and the demand side of the 2. industry chain.

In March, the industrial chain resonance rose: the average monthly price of phenol was 8784 yuan/ton (+34.89%), bisphenol A was 10991 yuan/ton (+36.48%), epoxy resin was 19302 yuan/ton (+28.07%),PC was 15491 yuan/ton (+18.17%). Profits are concentrated upstream: the average monthly profit of epoxy resin is as high as 1511 yuan/ton. The phenol ketone device still lost 182 yuan/ton but narrowed sharply by 655 yuan/ton month on month. PC was the slowest to repair due to terminal conduction lag.

The demand side is clearly differentiated. The peak season of "Gold, Three Silver and Four" provides a just-needed support. The turnover days of bisphenol A inventory have dropped to a historical low of 10-15 days, and production and procurement are supported. However, the price of phenol is rapidly approaching the 10,000 yuan mark, the downstream resistance has increased significantly, speculative stock has almost disappeared, and the phenomenon of "price but no market" in the market has already appeared at the weekend.

Judgment and Operational Recommendations for the 3. Aftermarket

early April (next 1-2 weeks): high shock, shock range 9500-10200 yuan/ton.

The upward drive is: crude oil and pure benzene geo-premium has not yet subsided, port and factory inventories are low; downward pressure is: high demand negative feedback intensified, Qingming holiday before the market risk aversion, profit-taking pressure increased. Whether the ceiling can be effectively broken depends on whether the geopolitical situation deteriorates again or a new reduction signal appears on the supply side.

Core risk: If the situation in the Middle East eases beyond expectations, cost support will collapse quickly and there is a possibility of a sharp correction in prices, which is the biggest downside tail risk at the moment and needs to be focused on prevention.

Operational recommendations:

• purchaser: Maintain 7-15 days of safety stock, replenish "small batches and multiple batches" on demand, and suspend large-scale speculative storage; closely track the trend of crude oil and pure benzene, and can be regarded as a phased price opportunity when geo-easing occurs.
• Selling/Trading Party: Priority executive long about locking profits, holding the spot should be fast in and out, the price is high when the moderate cash, to avoid high hoarding.