China's Zhejiang 368.2 billion Chemical Investment Plan: 101 High-End Projects Reshaping Global Supply Patterns

1. planning overview: zero new refining energy, a comprehensive bet on high-end new materials.

China's Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission recently officially released the "Implementation Plan for the First Batch of Major Construction Projects in 2026 for Expanding Effective Investment in the" Thousand Trillions "Project." After verification, there are 101 substantial landing projects in the field of green petrochemical and new materials, with a total investment of 368.2 billion billion yuan, forming an industrial pattern of "China's Ningbo-Zhoushan dual-core leadership and Jiaxing-Shaoxing-Hangzhou multi-polar support.

The clearest policy signal of this batch: none of the three refining and upgrading projects (with a total investment of 42.5 billion yuan) has added crude oil processing capacity. China Zhoushan Rongsheng Zhejiang Petrochemical Refining and Chemical Integration Transformation and Upgrading Project (with a total investment of 9.2 billion yuan) has reduced the proportion of refined oil output by 12% through technological transformation, greatly increasing the yield of chemical light oil. Ningbo Sinopec Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Company of China has newly built a 1 million-ton/year PX plant (with a total investment of 4.7 billion yuan) to optimize the structure of aromatic products. "Oil reduction and increase" is no longer a slogan, but has been implemented in the engineering logic of each specific project. For overseas aromatics and polyester industry chain suppliers, this means that China's self-sufficiency will be further improved.

2. three main core projects and global market shocks

main line one: card neck material concentrated breakthrough, import substitution into the substantive stage.

The most strategic value of this batch is the centralized layout of long-term dependence on imported varieties. China Zhoushan Rongsheng Petrochemical Zhejiang Petrochemical High-end New Materials Project (with a total investment of 28.6 billion yuan and the largest monomer in this batch) adopts independent intellectual property technology to build 250000 tons/year adiponitrile, 280000 tons/year hexamethylene diamine, 500000 tons/year nylon 66, 4 × 100000 tons/year POE and 350000 tons/year α-olefin units, thus opening up the long-term industrial chain of POE and nylon 3300.00g.

China's Ningbo Zhenhai Ring Olefin Polymer (COP) Project (with a total investment of 1.536 billion yuan) has built China's first 10,000-ton COP production line. The first phase of 5,000 tons/year-COP is known as "optical gold". Previously, it relied almost entirely on Japanese imports and was widely used in the fields of optical lenses, AR/VR, medical consumables and semiconductor packaging. This breakthrough poses direct competitive pressure on existing Japanese suppliers. China's Ningbo Beilun North Special Gas Silicon-based New Materials and Third Generation Semiconductor Materials Integration Project Phase I (with a total investment of 4.2 billion yuan) has an annual output of 61000 tons of electronic special gas and silicon-based epitaxial materials, fully supporting the third generation semiconductor industries such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride.

Based on the layout of the whole province, 12 core material projects that have long relied on imports, such as adiponitrile, POE, COP and electronic special gas, are expected to be put into operation in 2028, when the self-sufficiency rate of new high-end chemical materials in China will increase to more than 65%.

Main line two: private leaders lead ultra-large-scale platform projects, engineering plastics supply will be systematically reshaped.

Rongsheng New Materials Project on Jintang Island, Zhoushan, China (with a total investment of 76 billion yuan) plans to build 27 sets of main equipment, including 1.2 million tons/year ethylene, 800000 tons/year propylene, 600000 tons/year styrene, 400000 tons/year ABS, 300000 tons/year PC, etc., with the goal of building the world's largest single chemical new materials base. With the new production capacity of 400000 tons of ABS and 300000 tons of PC, superimposed on the previously disclosed 300000 tons of PC project in China Oriental Shenghong, the Asian regional pricing center of ABS, PC and other engineering plastics will face a systematic revaluation, and existing overseas suppliers need to formulate response plans in advance.

China Zhoushan Zhonghong New Materials 2.5 million tons of differentiated polyester fiber and 100000 tons of polyester film project (total investment 12.6 billion yuan) will be built into the world's largest differentiated polyester fiber production base, synchronous supporting high-end optical polyester film device, covering optical film, electronic grade film and other high-end applications. The first phase of the integrated project of comprehensive utilization of alkane resources in Shangyu, Zhejiang, Shaoxing, China (with a total investment of 11 billion yuan) will build 2 × 750000 tons/year propane dehydrogenation +2 × 300000 tons/year polypropylene to further expand the supply scale of polypropylene in China.

Main line three: green low-carbon and emerging track synchronous layout, open up differentiated growth space.

Keqiao Zhejiang, Shaoxing, China will become the largest SAF production base in China after the completion of the 300000-ton/year sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) project (with a total investment of 4.2 billion yuan). China Shaoxing Sanmei Co., Ltd.'s 90000-ton epichlorohydrin, 20000-ton HFO-1234yf and 20000-ton PVDF projects (with a total investment of 1.57 billion yuan) simultaneously cut into the two high-prosperity tracks of the third generation of environmentally friendly refrigerant and lithium battery PVDF binder. China Taizhou Wei Bojie caprolactone and PCL production base (total investment 2.2 billion yuan) to build a biodegradable plastics industry chain. The energy consumption per unit output value of all projects is more than 20% lower than the industry average, and the green premium is becoming a new dimension of China's chemical export competitiveness.

Core Judgment for Overseas Practitioners: the centralized production window of this batch of projects is 2027-2030, and the import dependence of POE, COP, UHMWPE, electronic special gas, PVDF, ABS, PC and other varieties will decline in stages. Overseas traders are advised to assess in advance the timeline of the narrowing of the export window to China, while producers need to speed up the establishment of technical moats on differentiated high-end varieties that China has not yet broken through.