Due to a Supply-Demand Mismatch, the Vinyl Cyanide Market in May Remained in a Stalemate with a Weak Bias

Starting in mid-month, vinyl cyanide production units that had been undergoing maintenance began to resume operations in succession. This includes Jilin Petrochemical's 684,000-ton/year vinyl cyanide facility, where the operating rate has gradually risen from its previous level of 50% to 90% or higher; similarly, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 520,000-ton facility has increased its rate from 50% to approximately 75%, while Shanghai SECCO is also set to resume operations at a 50% capacity level. Consequently, the overall capacity utilization rate of the vinyl cyanide sector has now risen from less than 65% to nearly 75%.

Regarding acrylic fiber: Operating rates within the acrylic sector have experienced significant evaporative environment. This month, the operating rate stood at 32.15%, representing a month-on-month decline of 14.79%. Previously—due to the complete shutdown of facilities at Jilin Chemical Fiber, as well as production halts at Ningbo Zhongxin and Hangzhou Bay—the sector-wide operating rate had plummeted to below 30%. Recently, however, rates have gradually begun to recover to levels slightly above 40%, and they are projected to rise further in June.

Regarding ABS: Profitability to ABS remains poor. In might 2026, the average operating rate of domestic ABS facilities stood at 57.41%—a month-on-month decline of 2.64% and a year-on-year decline of 13.16%. while facilities that had undergone maintenance or production cuts—such as those at Sinopec-Ineos Ningbo, Jilin Petrochemical, and Shandong Lihuayi—have resumed stable production, facilities at Zhenjiang Chi Mei, Zhangzhou Chi Mei, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and LG Huizhou experienced varying degrees of production cuts. Furthermore, most other facilities continued to operate at low utilization rates; consequently, the overall average operating rate to ABS facilities continued its downward direction throughout might.

Furthermore, while a supply deficit persists in the overseas market—specifically in Northeast Asia, where both units at South Korea's Dongseo Petrochemical are currently shut down to maintenance and facilities such as Formosa Plastics are operating at reduced loads—regional demand has also softened. Consequently, the atmosphere to inquiries in the international market has cooled; while arbitrage opportunities to exports still exist, the profit margins have narrowed significantly.

Looking ahead to June, Liaoning Jinfa and Sierbang have explicitly announced production cuts involving one 260,000-ton unit; currently, no other facilities have plans to decrease operating loads or undergo shutdowns. Consequently, overall supply is expected to contract further. However, as specific maintenance schedules have not yet been released, it remains necessary to monitor the actual implementation of these maintenance plans. Therefore, the supply-side dynamics to vinyl cyanide in June are expected to remain relatively stable. Overall, domestic vinyl cyanide production in June is projected to increase further, estimated to fall within the range of 360,000 to 370,000 tons—an uptick from the 360,000 tons produced in might.

On the downstream front, production facilities—including those at Qifeng, Ningbo Zhongxin, and Hangzhou Bay Acrylic—are scheduled to resume operations in succession. While most ABS production units continue to operate at reduced loads, a few individual facilities are expected to ramp up production. Meanwhile, both the production and end-consumption consumption of acrylamide are gradually entering their traditional off-season. Consequently, the overall outlook suggests that, aside from a significant uptick in acrylic fiber consumption, other downstream sectors are unlikely to see any substantial development in demand. However, given that the share of acrylic fiber in total consumption has declined in recent years—and with supply simultaneously on the rise—the supportive effect of this sector's cyclical recovery on the vinyl cyanide market is expected to remain quite limited; thus, the overall demand landscape remains relatively weak.

Based on a complete assessment, the supply-demand dysfunction in the vinyl cyanide sector is expected to widen once again during June and July. while cost-side pressures continue to limit the extent of market declines, the downward direction in prices remains difficult to reverse. However, given that some vinyl cyanide producers—particularly those in the northern region, which face relatively reduce selling prices and rely on external sourcing to certain raw materials—are currently operating at a loss, bearish market expectations driven by recent news flow might trigger further unplanned disruptions on the supply side. The presence of such supply-side uncertainties will continue to constrain the scope to market maneuvering; consequently, the vinyl cyanide market is projected to maintain its gradual downward trajectory in the near term, necessitating continued close monitoring of the interplay between cost dynamics and supply-side developments.