China's acetone market weekly report (June 1-June 5, 2026): supply concentration restarts overlay demand off-season, price pressure down but loss bottom support appears

Last week, China's acetone market continued to be weak, with the national average price falling from 6940 yuan/ton on June 1 to 6780 yuan/ton on June 5, a weekly drop of about 160 yuan/ton (-2.3), down 4.45 percent from 7077.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The core contradiction lies in the centralized restart of supply-side maintenance devices (phenol ketone operating rate increased by 4.9 to 79.7 percent month-on-week), while downstream demand entered the traditional off-season, and the imbalance between supply and demand continued to increase.

Prices and costs: narrow range stabilizes after sharp fall, losses narrow still in negative territory

this week's price trend was characterized by "stabilization after a sharp fall. On June 2, it fell 175 yuan/ton to 6765 yuan/ton in a single day, and then the decline narrowed in the later part of the week. It rebounded slightly by 35 yuan/ton on June 4 and was basically flat at 6780 yuan/ton on June 5. From the 90-day dimension, acetone is still up about 11.5, the current price is in the one-year range (4625-7925 yuan/ton) of the middle and high range.

On the cost side, the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 7655 yuan/ton, which continued to weaken on a week-on-week basis. Sinopec's implementation price was 7700 yuan/ton, and the port inventory was 110000 tons (down 18000 tons per week). The national average price of propylene is 8832.5 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week ratio of -0.41, PDH operating rate of 60.68 (+2.27), and the expected supply increment is obvious. Comprehensive calculation, phenol ketone production profit of -1064 yuan/ton, compared with late May -1523 yuan/ton has been repaired (+139 yuan/ton), but the average monthly loss in May is still 1155 yuan/ton, compared with April 264 yuan/ton significantly expanded by 889 yuan/ton, the industry is still deep in the loss range.

Supply and demand pattern: device restart accelerated, downstream bisphenol A and MMA simultaneously weakened.

On the supply side, the operating rate of phenol ketone rose from about 74.8 per cent to 79.7 per cent this week. Yangzhou Shiyou (120000 tons) restarted on May 30 and Bluestar Harbin (60000 tons) planned to restart on June 6 as the main incremental sources. Shandong's new factory will be sold out at the end of April and will continue to expand in May, further suppressing the market mentality. However, the inflection point of supply is already within sight: Sinopec Mitsui (150000 tons) will stop until the end of June, Changchun Chemical (180000 tons) plans to overhaul from late June to the end of July, Wanhua Chemical (310000 tons) plans to stop for 45 days from late July, and the supply will shrink again after mid-to-late June.

On the demand side, bisphenol A quoted 8500 yuan/ton in East China, with a theoretical profit loss of 1618 yuan/ton. The start-up rate in May was only 70.55 (down 10 percentage points from the previous month). MMA quoted 12350 yuan/ton in East China, with a start-up rate of 65.43 in May, but acetone consumption decreased by 13.7 month on month. The total acetone consumption of bisphenol A and MMA decreased by about 15509 tons month-on-month, which was the core factor of the weakening demand side. Isopropyl alcohol is quoted at 7450 yuan/ton, MIBK East China is quoted at 11450 yuan/ton, and the overall demand support is limited.

Acetone port inventory of about 27000 tons, at a neutral low level, to provide some bottom support for prices.

Post-market judgment and key observation nodes

the core game of the current market is the seesaw between the bottom support of "low inventory and deep loss" and the downward pressure of "supply increment and demand off-season. Short-term shortfalls dominate, but there is limited room for a sharp deep decline; medium-term focus on whether the July overhaul can effectively hedge against the June restart increment. Under the pessimistic scenario, acetone may fall back to 6500-6600 yuan/tonne, and bisphenol A is expected to fluctuate at 8400-8700 yuan/tonne.

In addition, the United States intends to impose tariffs of up to 12.5 per cent on economies such as China, and medium-and long-term chemical exports may be affected, and the results of the July 7 US 301 tariff hearing are noteworthy.

The following three key nodes: the actual situation of the restart of Bluestar Harbin on June 6, the progress of the overhaul of Changchun Chemical in late June, and the landing of the 45-day overhaul of Wanhua Chemical in July, all of which jointly determine the medium-term direction of the supply side.