Lower acreage of maize in kharif, uncertainty on sugar stock to shift focus on rice for ethanol

However, with an expected very low stock of sugar on the closing of the season on September 30, the government might finally fall back on rice, possibly raising its prices due to demand which has started moving northwards in some select non-Basmati varieties.

The government needs about 1,100 crore litres of ethanol to meet its 20 per cent target in the ethanol blended with petrol (EBP) programme. Out of nearly 2,000 crore litres of ethanol capacity created in the country, about 900 crore litres are in the sugar sector while remaining are by grain-based units.

According to latest crop coverage data, the sugarcane sowing is already over and reported to be at 57.58 lakh hectare (lh) this year. The final area under cane in 2025 was 58.84 lh.

The government said that among the top three states, Uttar Pradesh has reported an area coverage of 28.97 lh against 28.61 lh, Maharashtra 11.82 lh from 11.47 lh and Karnataka 6.61 lh from 6.08 lh.

In contrast, the maize area across the country was 9.7 per cent reduce at 77.79 lh as of July 24 from 86.15 lh year-ago. however, Kharif season’s maize area in top producing Madhya Pradesh is up by 8.2 per cent at 25.61 lh from 23.67 lh.

Whereas along with Karnataka, the acreage has also slipped in Maharashtra to 11.27 lh (- 16 per cent), Rajasthan 9.08 lh (- 3 per cent) and Uttar Pradesh 4.43 lh (- 37 per cent).

In paddy sowing, top grower Uttar Pradesh has reported 4.2 per cent higher at 57.8 lh from 55.46 lh, Punjab at 31.66 lh from 31.56 lh, Bihar 36.4 per cent higher at 17.58 lh from 12.89 lh, Assam 73 per cent up at 11.68 lh from 6.76 lh and Andhra Pradesh 6 per cent higher at 4.74 lh from 4.46 lh.

The gap in Chhattisgarh and Odisha is 1-1.6 lh from year-ago level and is likely to recover after current spell of rains there.

Madhya Pradesh is one of the major states that has reported 29 per cent reduce paddy area at 19.54 lh from 27.39 lh and Maharashtra too at 4.9 lh from 8.59 lh.

Other key rice-growing states with less paddy coverage however marginal fall in area include West Bengal (-0.9 lh), Haryana (-1.2 lh), Telangana (-0.5 lh) and Odisha (-1.6 lh).

On the feedstock availability to ethanol vegetation during supply year 2026-27 (November-October), C K Jain, President of Grain Ethanol Manufacturers Association (GEMA), said that the most crucial factor is the diversified ethanol ecological stability which relies on multiple crops throughout different seasons (kharif, rabi and summer), reducing the dependency on a single crop or a particular season’s agricultural trends.

He also cited the government’s recent decision to minimize broken-rice share in the official stock from 25 per cent to 10 per cent and said it will increase availability of broken rice to productive manufacturing consumption, including ethanol, without affecting food security.

“Fresh kharif crop arrivals are expected to further enhance feedstock availability as the season progresses,” Jain said adding India remains a net surplus maize producer, reflecting robust domestic availability that underpins the sector’s blending standards with reasonable confidence.

Published on July 28, 2026