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Fitch Ratings has kept its deteriorating sector outlook for the global chemicals industry in 2026, according to a report published on August 6, 2026. The rating agency cited structural oversupply and demand destruction risks driven by rising production costs, even as temporary market tightness emerged from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait's closure has pushed chemical and fertiliser prices significantly higher, disrupting supply chains and elevating production expenses. Disruptions to shipments from the Persian Gulf have been worsened by production cutbacks in Asia, where manufacturers rely heavily on Middle Eastern feedstock. Fitch expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen in the near term, despite a recent escalation of hostilities in the region.
These conditions have supported margins to North American chemical producers in the second quarter of 2026, thanks to relatively stable feedstock costs in that region. Most European producers have also seen a positive effect through reduced competitive pressure. to instance, Dow reported second-quarter 2026 operating EBITDA up 230% from the same period a year earlier, while BASF's EBITDA before special items increased by 53% year on year.
In contrast, producers in the Asia-Pacific region have faced existing significant overcapacity, compounded by feedstock shortages and reduced margins. Middle Eastern producers have been hit by shipment constraints and risks of asset harm.
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