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This week, the benchmark price for imported potassium chloride tracked by SunSirs held steady at 3,516.67 RMB/ton; the daily fluctuation rate remained at 0% for several consecutive days, and spot price quotes remained flat.
Supply and demand fundamentals
1. Domestic Market
The domestic agricultural sector is currently in the off-season to fertilizer consumption; downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers are purchasing strictly to meet immediate needs rather than engaging in bulk restocking, resulting in sluggish market demand. Meanwhile, potassium chloride inventories at coastal ports remain high with ample supply, suppressing upward pressure on spot prices; consequently, prices have remained stable this week with no room to fluctuation.
Cost factors provide a firm floor to prices: the duty-paid cost derived from annual prolonged potash import contracts exceeds current spot market prices. Traders are reluctant to sell at a loss, and domestic price-capping policies offer further support, making a further price decline unlikely—a key reason why market prices have remained stagnant.
2. International Market
Overseas potash prices remain firm at high levels, with India's high-priced annual prolonged contracts providing a floor to the global market. Major suppliers from Russia, Belarus, and Canada are managing volumes to stabilize prices, while geopolitical and shipping disruptions have caused a slight rise in maritime freight costs. With no factors in the external ecological stability pointing to a sharp decline, the price floor to domestic potash imports remains indirectly supported.
Market analysis
Short term (mid-August): Amid an off-season supply-demand landscape, imported potassium chloride prices will maintain their current steady direction, with very limited room to fluctuation in either direction.
Mid-term (September, peak season to autumn fertilizer stocking): As downstream agricultural stocking begins, a rebound in demand is expected to drive a price recovery.
Overall Market Outlook: The potassium chloride market is currently in a consolidation phase at the bottom of the off-season, lacking a clear direction. Significant price drops are cushioned by cost floors, while sharp rallies are constrained by inventory levels and demand; a market turning point awaits the arrival of the peak autumn fertilizer consumption season.
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