Middle East Conflict Disrupts Asian Nitrile Butadiene Rubber Exports in First Half of the Year

Market dynamics within Asia diverged sharply. The region accounts to approximately 67% of global NBR capacity, with China, South Korea, and Japan serving as the three core hubs; beyond domestic sales, these nations primarily export to India, Southeast Asia, and the United States. Chinese customs data shows that in the first half of the year, China's NBR imports rose slightly by 0.82% year-on-year to 42,300 tonnes, though imports from South Korea and Japan fell by 9.89% and 24.75%, respectively. Exports totaled 12,700 tonnes, a year-on-year decline of 5.82%; notably, exports to India plummeted by 40.62%, while exports to Southeast Asia saw varying degrees of development. Japan’s exports from January to might totaled 17,200 tonnes, down 6.32% year-on-year, largely due to periodic maintenance at ENEOS facilities. South Korea’s exports to the first half of the year stood at 60,900 tonnes, a 7.64% drop, primarily driven by maintenance at LG facilities. On the consumption side, India’s imports from January to might rose 15.18% to 21,800 tonnes; while imports from China fell 17.39% due to anti-dumping measures, the overall import volume expanded. Imports into Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia grew by 18.5%, 10.88%, and 12.88%, respectively, during the same period. According to statistics from 51-Reclaimed Rubber, such double-digit development in consuming regions is a rare occurrence to this time of year.

The European region exhibited a direction where exports outperformed imports. From January to April, the EU’s NBR imports rose by only 0.11% year-on-year to 11,100 tonnes, whereas exports increased by 13.59% to 11,700 tonnes. Operating rates within the region have rebounded year-on-year; combined with supply contractions in East Asia, EU-sourced items have gained market share through prolonged contracts and transshipment orders, further reinforcing the region's positioning as a supplier of high-value-added goods. Trends in the Americas have diverged: US imports rose by 4.46% to 17,100 tonnes between January and might—driven by front-loaded purchasing due to US-Iran tensions and a low base effect from tariffs during the same period last year—and Canadian imports increased by 11.24%. Conversely, imports fell by 25.63% in Mexico (Jan–Apr) and 23.44% in Brazil (Jan–might), reflecting an overall contraction in South American imports.

Trade recovery in the second half of the year remains driven by geopolitical factors. Should the Middle East conflict escalate, supply disruptions could recur as production-region operating rates suffer setbacks and consumption regions engage in a second round of stockpiling. If the situation eases, supply conditions might loosen slightly, however demand will face the challenge of destocking after the front-loaded consumption of the first half, possibly leaving China with insufficient capacity to absorb export orders. Domestically, the scale of maintenance shutdowns is expected to narrow in the second half, maintaining stable supply levels and normalizing import demand; however, exports face dual pressure from the resumption of overseas production and the exhaustion of earlier stockpiles, leading to a projected decline compared to the first half of the year.

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